G20 meeting, UK data, JPMorgan Chase results
The FT's Veronica Kan-Dapaah on the main stories to watch for this week, including G20 finance ministers' meeting in Bali, GDP data for the UK, third-quarter results from JPMorgan Chase and the inaugural Ministerial Mental Health summit in London
Written by Laura Noonan, Martin Wolf, Simon Greaves. Presented by Veronica Kan-Dapaah. Produced and edited by James Sandy
Here are some of the big stories we'll be watching this week. Finance ministers and central bankers will meet at the G20 in Bali. Investors are anticipating the latest round of economic data from the UK. JPMorgan Chase reports it third-quarter results. And London has the first ever ministerial mental health summit.
First up, finance ministers and central bankers of the world's leading economies will gather at the G20 meeting in Bali on Thursday, during the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. They're likely to discuss the state of the global economy against a backdrop of international trade frictions. They may also consider financial stresses in emerging economies, as well as the impact of monetary policy normalisation in countries that have recovered from the financial crisis.
Martin Wolf has more.
There are some real concerns about the world economy that are certainly going to be mentioned in the IMF's reports - the World Economic Outlook and other ones - about the state of emerging markets, the global consequences of Fed monetary tightening, higher interest rates, US fiscal policy. And there's a very great deal of concern about Donald Trump's trade policies and what they might mean.
So some of the things that come out from these more technical documents and the way people react to them could be revealing, because it might tell you a little bit about the crises people expect, and also possibly about how the world might respond, if at all.
The latest monthly figures for the UK's gross domestic product will be published on Wednesday. Throughout the week, there will also be data released for production, services, and construction output. The results will give investors a good idea of the size and growth of the British economy. That as the business world gears up for Brexit next March.
The significance of the raft of data on the UK economy coming next week is that this is now the third time we get this new publication of monthly gross domestic product, what's happening in industry, services, and construction for the three months between June and August. Now, the previous three months between May and July, the economy grew very rapidly, at 0.6 per cent, and that's a very good figure for the UK in recent times. So the question is, can it continue that rapid growth?
We've had a bit of data from that period. We've had retail sales, which were quite strong in August. But the May month was a very strong month, so it could well be that that growth rate declines a little bit now we're moving into the autumn.
JPMorgan Chase kicks off the earnings results season for US banks on Friday, setting the tone for a week of announcements from Wall Street's titans. Wall Street's biggest bank by assets is expected to post a 30 per cent increase in third-quarter profits year-on-year. But as Laura Noonan reports, this is unlikely to give a true reflection of the bank's performance and outlook.
The top line numbers for JPMorgan Chase are going to look pretty good. Analysts are expecting a 30 per cent increase in earnings per share versus a year earlier, which is going to sound great. The problem with that is the underlying drive was actually taxed. So JPMorgan and all the big US banks are paying a much lower tax rate now than they were a year ago because of changes that Donald Trump brought in at the end of last year.
So if we look at the underlying business, the news isn't going to be as good. The bank has already said that they saw a fall-off in trading revenue in the third quarter relative to a year earlier. Now the fall-off is pretty small. We're talking about trading revenue down by single-digit percentages. But still, we are looking into a more challenging trading time.
And finally, London is set to host the inaugural Global Ministerial Mental Health Summit on Tuesday and Wednesday. Mental illness remains the biggest cause of lost economic output worldwide, costing the global economy nearly $2.5 trillion dollars a year, the figure expected to rise to $6 trillion over the next 12 years. Sarah Neville explains why this summit is happening now.
For a long time, of course, it's a cliche to say it, but mental health has been the Cinderella of many health services. There's a real drive now for what's known as parity of esteem between mental and physical health. And this summit that's happening this week is the first attempt to bring together very high-level representatives from a large number of countries with a real focus on what works, what is proven to work to reach some sort of conclusion about what are the most effective treatments, the most effective approaches.
And that's what the week ahead looks like from The Financial Times in London.