Investment masterclass: Four ways to beat the market

This is an audio transcript of the Money Clinic podcast episode: ‘Investment masterclass: Four ways to beat the market’

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Claer Barrett
What are the tried and trusted investment strategies that have rewarded investors handsomely over the years? And could they still pay off in the future?

As market conditions become more challenging, experts are predicting that stockpicking will make a comeback. If you’re tempted to take the risky step of investing in the shares of individual companies, how on earth can you fathom which ones stand the best chance of doing well? On today’s investment masterclass, we’ll be exploring the data-driven world of stock screening — what it is, how to do it, and why today’s special guest thinks there are four main ways to try to beat the market. 

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Welcome to Money Clinic, the weekly podcast about personal finance and investing from the Financial Times. I’m Claer Barrett, the FT’s consumer editor. 

Now, on Money Clinic podcast we tend to talk a lot about investing in index funds, but we also know that there are listeners out there who are very interested in stockpicking, picking the shares in individual companies that you think will go on to outperform the market. Now, obviously that is a riskier strategy than spreading your bets among hundreds or thousands of firms. But nevertheless, it’s something that in these turbulent times people are interested in doing with either a very small proportion of their portfolio or perhaps if they’re very confident, a larger one. And our guest on the podcast this week is somebody who is an absolute expert in narrowing down the pool of stocks that you might pick from. And he is called Algy Hall. Welcome to the podcast, Algy. 

Algy Hall
Thank you very much for having me, Claer. 

Claer Barrett
So tell us a little bit about this book that you’ve written, Four Ways to Beat the Market. I love things that have such a compelling title (laughter) like that. Is it that simple? 

Algy Hall
Well, the way to describe it is simple, but not easy. So the four ways to beat the market in the book are actually very well known, and there is a lot of empirical evidence that they work and they are quality investing, value investing, momentum investing, and then also, I call it dividend investing, but I think the academics who research it would refer to it as low-volatility. These are strategies to help you pick stocks, which can be seen as quite formulaic if you just follow the academic research. But the way my book tries to look at them is in, I suppose, a more homely way. So it’s actually, you know, what is it behind these ideas which are important for your stockpicking? 

Claer Barrett
OK, before we go any further, I should say, as we say in our disclaimer every week, this is a podcast that discusses investment ideas. We’re not giving you financial advice. We’re not suggesting that the stocks that we mention are ones that you should necessarily put your money in or sell out of. That’s up to you and seek independent investment advice from a qualified financial adviser if you feel unsure about making your own decisions. But even if you think, well, I’m the kind of person, let’s play it safe, I’m not really sure stockpicking is for me, there will be things in this episode that you can pick up and learn from. And the discussion of the wider market trends with Algy and how that might be affected by what’s going on in the news at the moment, I’m sure will be an interesting lesson for you.

Now, before we go on to talk about how you pick out and winnow down all of these thousands of stocks that are in the market into the ones that fulfil those four strategies, let’s hear a little bit more about you, Algy. Obviously you’re an author. You’ve written this book, Four Ways to Beat the Market. You’re also a financial journalist. And I have to tell you listeners, when I first started at the Financial Times Group in 2008 on the Investors’ Chronicle magazine, the person who I was put next to, to shepherd me into the role reporting on financial companies was none other than Algy. Was I a good student? 

Algy Hall
Oh, absolutely. Claer, you are the best. 

Claer Barrett
(Laughter) Well, I would have kicked you under the table (laughter) if you said anything otherwise. But you were the person whose sleeve I tucked and said, (gasp) looking at company accounts, balance sheets, have I quite got this right? I think this is OK, but I’m not a maths whizz. I got a B at GCSE maths. I didn’t do maths A-level. I’m able to understand and learn about all of these things. If I can do it, anyone can. 

Algy Hall
Well, I think the thing that people find really scary is often the numbers side, but in actual fact understanding investment is about understanding ideas far more than it’s about understanding numbers. And the numbers are, is a kind of language, if you like. There are stories in the numbers. And once you’ve got past the initial fear and you know the basic principles, it’s a lot easier to get your head round. 

Claer Barrett
And it’s part two of your book that will really help people to develop that practical understanding of how company accounts really work. But back to the subject of this podcast, the four ways to beat the market. Now these four strategies or stories, whatever you want to call them, different ways that different parts of the stock market have done well, first of all, the biggest problem is finding companies that match up to these strategies. Now, there’s a way of doing that. It involves spreadsheets, but the shorthand term for it is a stock screen. So tell us Algy, firstly, what is a stock screen? 

Algy Hall
Well, essentially, it’s a set of tests for stocks to pass. And if they pass all the tests, then they’re stocks which are worth looking at in more depth. 

Claer Barrett
OK, I get that. So you’re basically screening out and screening it, narrowing down the pool . . . 

Algy Hall
Exactly. 

Claer Barrett 
. . . of shares and based on a particular strategy. A set of tests. And we’re gonna discuss four common ones that you devised when you were at the Investors’ Chronicle. 

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The first thing we’re going to discuss is quality shares. But how does Algy define what makes the grade? 

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Algy Hall
So a quality share essentially is a company which can invest money back into its own business and make very good money from doing so. So it makes a high return on capital in the jargon. Also, it may have other characteristics. It may make a lot of profit from its sales, which signifies that it’s selling something really special. So, often companies, they’ll start off making a lot of money on their sales, but then competition will come in and copy what they do and they won’t be able to make so much money. But a quality company has some kind of . . . 

Claer Barrett
Brand loyalty, I suppose.

Algy Hall
Exactly. Brand loyalty would be a perfect example. So a company like LVMH, the French luxury. 

Claer Barrett
Louis Vuitton. 

Algy Hall
Exactly. And I think it has 75 different maisons making endless, incredibly high-priced items. And people buy them. People love them because the brand and the heritage is so great. 

Claer Barrett
Well, I have to say, perhaps showing my snobbery, I might buy shares, but I certainly would never, ever buy one of its handbags. (Laughter) (Inaudible) stingy, too stingy by half.

OK, so the quality strategy, what are the pros and cons? ‘Cause I can imagine these kinds of companies might be as expensive as the goods they sell. 

Algy Hall
Well, actually, I think you’ve kind of hit on it. The amazing thing about quality is that it exists at all as a phenomenon, because normally when a company is high quality, it’s quite easy to observe. However, because the value of these companies can create, through something called compounding, which is a kind of key idea in finance because the value is so great, you can actually still make amazing amounts of money out of it over time, as long as it remains a quality company and is growing. The danger, though, is that people often are easily fooled into thinking any growth company is a quality growth company. Real quality companies are few and far between. So the danger is that people overpay when the market’s very excited about a certain type of stock. And I think in 2021 you can really look back at that period when people were paying eye-watering sums for growth stocks and then there was a massive fraud in the market. 

Claer Barrett
So give us some more examples of quality stocks that people might have heard of. 

Algy Hall
So I think in the UK market there’s an amazing publisher called Relx, which controls huge amounts of data. It’s an academic publisher. 

Claer Barrett
It was Reed Elsevier, I think . . . 

Algy Hall
Yes, exactly.

Claer Barrett
 . . . before the corporate rebranding. 

Algy Hall
It rebranded to be even lower-profile, which is go . . . 

Claer Barrett
Gosh, have we got a stock screen for companies that have done weird rebranding (laughter) exercises? I wonder what that would throw up. So why are they quality? 

Algy Hall
Well, they own a lot of data and people can’t get that anywhere else because no one else has the data. And then also they have this big academic publishing business going through all these academic papers, approving them, putting them in their journals. And although the universities often get extremely annoyed about the amount of money they make out of the academic publishing business, actually the competitive advantage remains. So it’s just one of those situations where no one can really get into the business that they do. The longer they remain in business and continue collecting data and building up the academic journals, the better it is for them as well. So it gets harder for competitors to make any inroads and they make huge amounts of money from their business.

I suppose something like Diageo in the UK would also be a great example of a quality business because of all its brands, its high-end drinks brands. 

Claer Barrett
Well, if you’re fond of a tipple as I am, (laughter) then you may well know. Some of you may not think Smirnoff is one of the more famous ones. 

Algy Hall
Yeah. Yeah. 

Claer Barrett
I suppose some people in the cost of living crisis might be tempted to downgrade to a cheaper house spirit. But lots of people set a lot of store in having a recognisable brand in their hand. 

Algy Hall
Absolutely. And I mean, it is one of the amazing things with these products, which you would assume was cyclical, you know, affected by the wider economic outlook, but they tend not to be so much, they tend to be luxuries which people persist with and really adore. 

Claer Barrett
Can’t pay the mortgage, but I’m gonna buy my bottle of Smirnoff (inaudible). I can’t compromise. 

Algy Hall
We all get comfort in different ways, don’t we? (Laughter)

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Claer Barrett
The second group of companies Algy thinks are worthy of further investigation are those that pay a dividend. If you’re not sure what that is, listen up. 

Algy Hall
So essentially the best way to think about a dividend is it’s money that a company has left over and they don’t have anything really better to do with it. So they’ve exhausted all their potential to invest money in the business and make a decent enough return to justify investing it. They don’t have any issues on their balance sheet. They don’t have to pay back debts or anything like that. They’re happy with their debt levels. And so what are they gonna do with the money? The best thing to do is to return it to shareholders. So a dividend is often seen as a kind of gift to shareholders. But this can get people into a lot of trouble because it’s totally zero-sum. As soon as a company takes that money that was in its business and hands it back to its shareholders, its stock price falls by an equal amount. 

What’s really interesting with dividend strategies is that conservative companies tend to outperform, and these are two hallmarks of a conservative company — the fact they choose to hand back money to the shareholders rather than invest it in dubious growth projects, and also the shares aren’t very volatile, kind of confirming that these are conservative companies. So the dividend strategy is weird because it’s a, you’re benefiting from what the company isn’t doing, which is (inaudible) the concept to get one’s head round. But by not being all gung-ho and having a management which is . . . 

Claer Barrett
Slow and steady. 

Algy Hall
Exact- . . . slow and steady, really boring and just like not going after the glory projects. These companies tend to just persist. They do well when times are tough and they end up giving really large returns to people who own their shares. 

Claer Barrett
A further tip from me: reinvesting any dividends rather than spending them will help your investments grow and compound faster. Listen to a recent investment masterclass with Lord John Lee. For more on this, there’s a link in today’s show notes. 

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Give us some examples, Algy, of companies that would fit within that dividend screen, whether you call them low-volatility, boring, dependable. Give us a few names. 

Algy Hall
So I suppose this is a name which has probably moved on. But in my book, JD Sports is one of the big successes of the dividend screen when I ran it. And really the charm of JD Sports, which is very family-owned at the time, but it was in trouble with the acquisition they’ve done of a company called Blacks Leisure. What really stood out there was this company was still well financed, generating enough cash to reliably pay out the dividend and was clearly not being wayward. It was addressing its problems and once they sorted out this issue they had with the acquisition they had made, the real value of the business started to emerge and people saw that it had a competitive advantage in selling high-end sports shoes and sports gear, which was based on its relationships with the major suppliers like Nike and Adidas. So the dividend was the clue that this was a healthy company with a healthy business behind what looked like a really quite a troubled story. 

Claer Barrett
Mmm. And give us some more examples of dividend payers. I suppose the oil stocks are the classic ones that pay a dividend year after year, although . . . 

Algy Hall
Yes. 

Claer Barrett 
. . . that may be a bad example. 

Algy Hall
Well, it’s a really interesting example, I think, because oil stocks in some ways pay a dividend to make up for the fact that their businesses aren’t stable at all. So my screen for dividend-paying stocks really never highlighted many oil stocks because . . . 

Claer Barrett
So just paying dividends alone is not . . . 

Algy Hall
No, you have to be a stable business. And oil companies aren’t stable. So you, actually you’re getting a high yield because the risk of that dividend disappearing is quite high. You’re not looking into this kind of dull and conservative story that’s super attractive. 

Claer Barrett
So the duller, the better. 

Algy Hall
The duller, the better. Yes.

Claer Barrett
So, it’s the moral of that story. 

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The next strategy Algy talked about was momentum — investing in companies that are going places. 

Algy Hall
Yes, this is quite a high-risk strategy, especially compared to the dividend strategy which tries to control risks. So momentum is a really curious thing because it feels like it shouldn’t be that big because it’s about buying stocks which have already gone up. So intuitively, you think, I’ve missed the boat. This is no longer an interesting story, but actually what loads and loads of studies have found is that when stocks go up, the tendency is they carry on going up. There’s something good happening normally behind the scenes, which is propelling the share price higher. The strategy in the book marries that kind of price momentum with earnings momentum. And specifically it looks for situations where brokers who forecast earnings for the future for companies are having to upgrade those forecasts all the time. And those two trends complement each other really nicely and they slightly protect from the major risk of momentum, which is the market gets carried away, which is part of the reason why momentum is so profitable. 

But then suddenly you wake up and go, oh my goodness (laughter) we’re all, we’re all, far too overexcited. And what we thought was the next great thing isn’t at all. And you know someday the bubble will go pop, and there’ll be a whipsaw reversal, which can be hugely painful. But if you have the earnings momentum in there as well as the price momentum, it slightly limits the damage that’s gonna be done. 

Claer Barrett
Now, I guess examples of that whipsaw phenomenon, as you say, could be some of the stocks that we saw really, really outperform in the pandemic . . . 

Algy Hall
Yes. 

Claer Barrett 
. . . when consumer habits changed. Perhaps Peloton? 

Algy Hall
Yes, of course. 

Claer Barrett
Exercising indoors — no one’s doing that anymore. And then maybe stocks like Ocado. People did lots and lots of online shopping and people thought, right, this is the future. And then now that people can go back to the shops and maybe want to go to cheaper shops, that’s seen a lot of the wind taken out. 

Algy Hall
Absolute- . . . I mean, I would add AO World which was actually stock highlighted by the screen, which completely blew up (chuckle) in the aftermath of that huge excitement. And that period was really interesting because when we started out in lockdown, there was an understanding that we were going to see things which wouldn’t persist. And really, everyone was talking about that pretty much the whole way through. Yet so many people ended up on the bandwagon because it’s so hard to see beyond what’s actually happening. You know, something which has been a trend is only temporary and will reverse. So I think it’s really interesting in terms of how our psychology works and why, on the one hand, momentum can be so beneficial if you’re following it in a smart way, but also can be so treacherous if you do what most people do, which is join in at the end just when the market is about to turn. 

Claer Barrett
Can you give us a good example of a share with momentum that’s managed to maintain that momentum? 

Algy Hall
I think there’s a share which is called Ashtead, which hires out equipment mainly in America for building, and is doing especially well with data centres now. But this is a company where, it buys in loads of equipment, and then the more demand it finds there is, the more it can rent it out for and the longer it stays out with people who are paying money to have it. And so it’s particularly well-suited to pushing upgrades through from brokers because the brokers will have an assumption which is relatively conservative in terms of, you know, we think they may be able to have this equipment out on hire X per cent of the time for X amount of money. And then if there are some really strong trends (inaudible) in markets, you can have the forecast being pushed up and up and up and up because it’s so sensitive to good news, essentially. And it’s had a lot of good news. In the US, hiring is relatively new compared to ownership. So in the US you’ve got this structural trend, as they call it, of more companies hiring more stuff and you’ve also got people loving to build data centres at the moment. 

Claer Barrett
Yeah. Gosh, one of my summer jobs, I worked inside a data centre, I mean windowless buildings full of air conditioning units and whirring computer servers. I mean, this was about 22 years ago when they were in . . . 

Algy Hall
(Inaudible) 

Claer Barrett
But yeah, very, very strange. Strange world of the data centre.

But this is the thing about stock screens. It will throw up companies that you may never have heard of. For you to then go off and investigate further and find out things that you wouldn’t otherwise pick just through your own biases or interests. 

Algy Hall
No, absolutely. They’re there to kind of shake you out of your normal thought process and suggest something new. 

Claer Barrett
Last but not least, Algy’s final bargain hunting stocks screen is contrarian value. But what does this actually mean? 

Algy Hall
The idea basically is to find stocks which have been doing really badly and companies which kind of have some issues and then buying them close to the bottom, hopefully. 

Claer Barrett
Bottom fishing. 

Algy Hall
Yes (laughter) indeed. The elegantly named bottom fishing. (Laughter) Well, yeah. I mean, the amazing thing is sometimes people get so downbeat on a company that even when it’s still fairly substantial, it can be pushed to a valuation, which means any good news is going to really see those shares take off. 

What the screen tries to do, it starts off by looking for really persistent sales and then it looks for the ones which have a really low valuation against sales. And the reason for looking to sales is that often you want to be buying companies when profits are really low, which sounds crazy, but when you’re looking for stocks which are cheap, often it’s at a time when they’re not earning very much money, they’re not very profitable. 

Claer Barrett
But they’ve got the potential . . .  

Algy Hall
They’ve got the potential. 

Claer Barrett
 . . . to be profitable. But there’s something that comes along to cause a re-rating. 

Algy Hall
I think the quite common feature is that you have stocks affected by something which is outside their control, but which you can expect to change over time. 

Claer Barrett
Could be a chief executive leaving suddenly. 

Algy Hall
It could be something like that and also at the moment it could be to do with inflation in cost, something like that, something to do with supply chains. It could just be to do with fears about the economic cycle. So we have a lot of housebuilders and car dealers, which are extremely cheap by their historic standards because we’re very fretful about the recession. But also we’ve seen quite a few companies taken over because there are other people out there who are looking at them now and saying, well, actually . . . 

Claer Barrett
They’re not gonna be cheap forever. 

Algy Hall
That won’t last for ever. 

Claer Barrett
So give me some examples of actual companies that fit into this contrarian value category. 

Algy Hall
Well, I think some interesting companies at the moment are the big oil and gas companies. There’s a lot of pessimism about whether they’ll be able to stay in business in the future because obviously the energy transition is something that has to happen. 

Claer Barrett
Or be hit by some kind of swingeing carbon tax. 

Algy Hall
Exactly. Exactly. Regulation is very unpredictable, but it’s the type of situation where these are all external issues and the shares are incredibly cheap there if you look at them on any normal valuation basis. 

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Claer Barrett
So, Algy, you’ve taken us through these four stock screens that you wrote about in the Investors’ Chronicle for more than 10 years. They continue to write about every week. Now for the period that your book covers, which is roughly the 10 years up to 2021, give us an indication of how market-beating those strategies have proved. 

Algy Hall
The quality screen was the best, though I should say as a caveat, what came out best over 10 years isn’t necessarily gonna come out best over the next 10 years . . . 

Claer Barrett
Of course. 

Algy Hall
But the quality screen produced a cumulative total return of 508 per cent. 

Claer Barrett
Now, put that into context. If I’d invested a pound in this? 

Algy Hall
So £1, you would have £5.08. 

Claer Barrett
OK. 

Algy Hall
So actually if we added in fees so you’d have a bit less. So then I’d put my fees at 1.5 per cent. You’d have £4.22. 

Claer Barrett
But nevertheless quadruple your money. 

Algy Hall
Yeah. You would have quadrupled your money. So if you put in £1mn, you’d have £4mn. 

Claer Barrett
See that. (Laughter) That’s where we differ. I’m like, £1. You’re like, 1mn. I’m such a safety conscious investor. 

Algy Hall
No, £1 sounds far more level-headed. 

Claer Barrett
OK, so quality shares were the winner. Bit of a gulf between numbers two, three and four. But the next one was dividends. 

Algy Hall
Yes, the next one was dividend. So, quality shares outperformed the index by 388 per cent. Dividends outperformed index by 267 per cent. 

Claer Barrett
Not so boring now. 

Algy Hall
Not so boring now. Exactly. And also, they did actually have quite a tough time when we went into lockdown. 

Claer Barrett
Because lots of dividends were cut. 

Algy Hall
Lots of dividends were cut, but they still did hold up better than the market overall. And then the next one is momentum, which outperformed by 262 per cent. 

Claer Barrett
OK. So not far off dividends. 

Algy Hall
No, not far off. And then value, which outperformed by 242 per cent over the decade. 

Claer Barrett
Wow. So that’s investing in those companies that look like they’re cheap but could come back . . . 

Algy Hall
Yes. Yeah.

Claer Barrett 
. . . in the future. That’s what we mean by value. I mean, even though that was the one that did the least well of the four, I mean, 242 per cent over 10 years (inaudible) . . . 

Algy Hall
Yeah, no, it’s definitely not to be sniffed at. 

Claer Barrett
OK. Now, for people who are inspired by this podcast, and want to learn more about stock screens, obviously they can buy your book Four Ways to Beat the Market, which is published by Harriman House. It’s out in the shops now. They can also read the weekly Stock Screens column, which continues. Our colleague upstairs, Alex Newman, is writing that for the Investors’ Chronicle. But if people are inspired to try and maybe create their own stock screen, what practically would they need to be able to do that? 

Algy Hall
Well, you need data. You can normally get a subscription to good data service for a couple of hundred quid. Either you can pull it into a spreadsheet or most data services have their own screening tools and you have to assess them to see if they’re gonna do what you want. It’s a very important kind of road test, the data services. And there are two in the UK, which also cover international stocks, which I personally think are very good — ShareScope, also known as SharePad, and there’s also one called Stockopedia. 

Claer Barrett
Thank you. Well, if you’re an investment geek like Algy, (laughter) I’m sure there’s endless hours of fun for you in that. But for those of us who like reading about investment stories — you always had a stack of books on your desk at the Investors’ Chronicle — what are the ones that you would say to podcast listeners who are interested in investing in general, but particularly stock picking and valuing companies, understanding accounts? What are the books that you would recommend? 

Algy Hall
Well . . . 

Claer Barrett
Other than your own, of course. 

Algy Hall
Other than my own. (Laughter) I wouldn’t be so modest. (Laughter) We had a reading list on the Investors’ Chronicle actually, after your time, Claer. There were three books. One is The Little Book That Builds Wealth, which explains how companies can gain a competitive advantage. And then there’s another one, which is also a little book. It’s called The Little Book of Behavioral Investing, which explains how we’re all basically set up to make poor investment decisions, unfortunately. (Laughter)

Claer Barrett
Oh, yes. 

Algy Hall
But the main thing is it’s really good to just know what the common pitfalls are because you will have to put systems in place to stop yourself from falling into them — knowing about them isn’t enough. And also realising that you’re not different because one of our biases is that we all think biases don’t apply to us, which is the irony. (Laughter)

And then the final book was How to Pick Quality Shares, which is written by another former IC writer called Phil Oakley. That book explains how to use company accounts and how to understand ratios and things like that, but it’s written in a very easy to understand way. He’s a straight talking Yorkshireman, Phil. 

Claer Barrett
Certainly is. 

Algy Hall
So that would be the other book. 

Claer Barrett
Fantastic. Well, a great little summer reading list there for all of our dedicated investor listeners. And of course, add to it Algy’s own book, Four Ways to Beat the Market, which is published by Harriman House. 

Now, Algy, this book is incredibly impressive. There’s lots of investment strategy talk, lots of fine numbers, lots of really hard work that you’ve put into this. But it’s not your first book, is it? (laughter)

Algy Hall
It is not. Well, yeah, my normal books, well, my normal books are children’s picture books. So I think my first ever book was about a frog who has lots of baby brothers and sisters and is slightly traumatised, but then learns to love it. I’ve, (laughter) I’ve done many more picture books since then, so I think my picture books outnumber my finance books by about 11 to 1. 

Claer Barrett
I mean, you are a polymath. (Algy laughs) You are a fantastic illustrator, and an investment expert and fine journalist. 

Algy Hall
But I stumbled into financial journalism whilst trying to be a successful illustrator. So I don’t I don’t know how that works, but . . . 

Claer Barrett
Well, you can be good at more than one thing. And you clearly are. Algy, It’s been so lovely to have you in the podcast studio and catch up again. Feels like old times. 

Algy Hall
It does. Great to be here. Thank you. 

Claer Barrett
If only we could go back then and buy all of the shares that (laughter) you’ve written about in this book, then we’d never have to work a day in our lives again. But thank you very, very much for joining us for Money Clinic today.

That’s it for this week. We do hope that you’ve enjoyed what you heard and if you have liked the show today, then please give us a review. We’re always open to your ideas. If you’d like to be a featured guest on the podcast then you can get in touch with us. Our address is money@ft.com and of course you can find me on Instagram. I’m @claerb. 

This week’s episode was produced by Laurence Knight and Philippa Goodrich. Our executive producer is Manuela Saragosa, and the sound design was by Breen Turner, with original music from Metaphor Music. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of audio. 

And finally, our usual disclaimer. The Money Clinic podcast is a general discussion around financial topics and does not constitute an investment recommendation or individual financial advice. For that, you’ll need to find an independent financial adviser. That’s all the small print for now. See you back here next week. Goodbye. 

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