Labour’s historic by-election wins 

This is an audio transcript of the Political Fix podcast episode: ‘Labour’s historic by-election wins ’

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Jim Pickard
Old loyalties appear to be a bit dead and the idea of a safe Tory seat seems to be very much up in the air.

Lucy Fisher
Welcome to Political Fix, your essential insider guide to Westminster from the Financial Times with me, Lucy Fisher. You heard there the FT’s Jim Pickard talking about Labour’s two spectacular by-election wins this week. Also coming up, we’ll discuss Rishi Sunak’s tour of the Middle East, where he’s taken part in a flurry of diplomatic meetings aimed at preventing the Israel-Hamas conflict escalating. I’m joined in the studio now by my FT colleagues Miranda Green. Hi, Miranda.

Miranda Green
Hello, Lucy.

Lucy Fisher
Jim Pickard. Hi, Jim.

Jim Pickard
Hello.

Lucy Fisher
And Stephen Bush. Hi, Stephen.

Stephen Bush
Hi, Lucy.

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Lucy Fisher
So we’re meeting on Friday morning in the wake of a political earthquake victory for the Labour party, as Keir Starmer would have it. Here’s a clip of him celebrating after two very significant by-election wins.

Keir Starmer in clip
It is clear that the voters here have turned their back on a failed Tory government. They had enough of the decline of the last 13 years and they are crying out for change, positive change that the Labour party can bring them.

Lucy Fisher
Unsurprisingly, perhaps Tory party chairman Greg Hands was a little bit more mealy-mouthed.

Greg Hands in clip
We do need to reflect on the fact the Conservative vote was down very considerably. We do need to reflect on the fact that we need to get our Conservative voters, or people who might or did vote Conservative, back to voting Conservative. That is a big challenge.

Lucy Fisher
So Jim, Miranda, there are a wealth of statistics showing what a sort of significant event this is in the Tamworth by-election. It was a 23.9 per cent swing to Labour, the second biggest swing to Labour in a by-election ever. Meanwhile, in Mid Bedfordshire, Labour broke the record for the largest numerical majority overturned at a by-election. And it is of course the first time Labour has won two by-election gains on the same day since 1962. I could go on. Jim, a lot of people getting very excited about this, a lot of very hyperbolic language. I’ve been struck particularly by elections expert Sir John Curtice saying that Labour could now be on course for a bigger landslide than 1997 on the basis of these by-election wins. What do you think?

Jim Pickard
So the reason people need to cool their boots ever so slightly is because by-elections are not like general elections. They have incredibly low turnout, as you guys know full well. And therefore when you have turnouts of — I think it’s around 45 per cent in Mid Beds and maybe about 36 per cent in Tamworth — there are an awful lot of people who just sat on their hands and we don’t know what they’re gonna do when a general election comes around and therefore you just have to be a little bit careful. I think the trend we’ve seen during this parliament is — and I was trying to count the number of by-elections we’ve had last night — I think the Conservatives have now lost about eight and they’ve only won one. In terms of taking them off other people, they seized eight from other parties. The Tories have lost in eight constituencies, but they’ve only won Hartlepool in early 2021. And these were just a series of ginormous majorities, whether you’re talking about North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham or the two this week.

So what one thing that definitely tells us is that old loyalties appear to be a bit dead and the idea of a safe Tory seat seems to be very much up in the air. But I think that fluidity of voters not really liking Conservatives at the moment, there is still a bit of a feeling that they may not yet be in love with the Labour party, that’s my only sense of caution. But going back to your original question, is it a big deal for Labour? Is John Curtice right? Of course the swings were massive. The comparative swing in Tamworth is that when the Labour party first won that seat in 1996, in a by-election one year out from the general election landslide, the swing was ever so slightly smaller than the one they experienced this week. And psephologists will tell us that swings are the big thing and both were over 20 per cent, which is very big.

Lucy Fisher
Yeah, it’s a beautiful analogy that, isn’t it, it’s a handy one for Labour perhaps. Miranda, just reflecting a bit on some of these caveats for a second, Jim mentioned that turnout was low. Certainly, Conservative party insiders are saying, look, it’s our voters who stayed home. That’s normal at this stage of the cycle. We’re in government. People like to give the government of the day of whatever colour a kicking. And they also point out that the circumstances in which these two by-elections happened: one following the exit of a Tory MP who was caught up in groping allegations, the other following the exit of Nadine Dorries, you know, a close ally of Boris Johnson, very much tied to the chaos of his leadership in the minds of many voters and also accused of not properly representing local constituents for the past 12 months. Is there something in all these excuses that Tory insiders are putting out there?

Miranda Green
So I think Mid Bedfordshire is a sort of special case in several ways, so we’ll come back to that. But I think there is a real problem with the Tory party trying to say a) legacy issues. This is the line that Greg Hands, party chairman and campaigns chief, was trying to use. If you are defending the record of your government over what will be 14 years next year when we have a general election, that’s what you have to offer the voters. You know, they are essentially giving a verdict on your record, which is in a sense your legacy. And as you’ve just said in your little sort of introductory question, these cases remind the voters every time of the failures of this sort of most recent chapter in Conservative history and that’s how you get defeats like those we’ve seen this week. I think on the stay-at-home voters, and Jim’s right to sort of introduce this note of caution, I do think he’s spoiling our fun a little bit. (Laughter)

Jim Pickard
Sorry.

Lucy Fisher
Typical Jim.

Miranda Green
Yeah, I think. And you raised the question of the cycle and whether it’s normal to have so many stay-at-home voters at this point in the cycle. What happened in 1997, that historic Blair win that Sir John Curtice said might even be exceeded in the coming general election, was that a lot of Tory voters stayed at home. And people actually forget that about May ’97 and it’s no good. In first past the post, you need your people to come out and put that positive X in the box for your party. Otherwise, you know, you don’t make it over the line. So it doesn’t in a sense actually matter if they stay at home and don’t positively choose Labour in a lot of constituencies. You know, they could win those voters back and convince them to turn out on the day. But that’s a big question mark.

Lucy Fisher
Stephen, you heard what Miranda said there. We’ll talk in a minute about what this means for Starmer going forward. But let’s just pause a bit on the problem facing Rishi Sunak. Is this essentially a verdict on his attempted reset as the change candidate, his bid to row back on net zero, cancellation of HS2? Is this frankly, proof that that has failed so far and he needs to be bigger, bolder in his rolling of the dice? What options does he have?

Stephen Bush
Well, although I think this does show that the Conservative conference has not reset people’s view of the Conservative party, I kind of think, actually, that the Tory party’s big problem is, if we think about all the stuff all of you have been doing and reporting over the last week, we’ve had, oh, there’s more dangerous concrete in schools. Oh, some people who we’d like to send to prison won’t be because we don’t have prison spaces. That’s not the closing argument of a government that’s going to be re-elected.

And in an odd way, I actually think Rishi Sunak’s biggest problem, despite the fact that the political operation is not that good, is that there’s been this huge focus on how he can find political solutions to what is ultimately a policy problem, which is that most households feel significantly poorer than they did a year ago, and that large chunks of the British state are in some cases literally crumbling before our eyes and in many other cases figuratively crumbling before our eyes.

I mean, this thing, which I found really striking this morning, is that actually, it clearly did come up that Tamworth doesn’t have a police station, for example, and obviously, like Mid Beds is a bit weirder because it’s this kind of, you know, I mean, it’s essential in those constituencies which would be more accurately called unincorporated land. You know, it’s a collection of random villages, so they don’t have that same sense of loss of amenities than constituencies that are based around a core place do. But this is a verdict on the government’s 13-year policy record. It shows, I would say, unsurprisingly, that the prime minister talking rather nebulously about how it’s a 30-year problem instead is not going to fix that.

Lucy Fisher
Jim, what can Sunak do? I mean, we’ve got the King’s Speech coming up, but not terribly much time left to sort of unveil big, ambitious policies and get them through before the next general election. We’ve got an Autumn Statement where the fiscal circumstances are really tight. Jeremy Hunt’s made clear, no tax cuts to appease the Tory right. Talk of a reshuffle, I mean, what should Sunak do now?

Jim Pickard
I mean, I think looking back on what happened in July is that of the by-election results which really mattered, Selby was more important than Uxbridge. But the media in general, I think we as a group fell into that trap of overanalysing Uxbridge, which, you know, is a seat that’s never been Labour. There was a lot of resistance to Ulez there, but that is a particular issue for the outer (inaudible) of London. It’s not an issue in the wider country. And Rishi Sunak went down a big policy U-turn on the whole, basically entirety of net zero, re-examining an awful lot of that off the back of that one very particular result. He didn’t, it doesn’t seem to have put an awful lot of thought into why he lost in Selby, which had around the majority of 20,000 to Labour.

If I had the solution for how you get out of the very difficult problem of 13 years of the same party being in charge with an awful lot of political chaos, a couple of rather unpopular leaders by the end, in particular Liz Truss, and people’s mortgages going through the roof, then I would be getting a highly remunerated job inside Downing Street. I have no solutions for the guy at all. What I see ahead, like you said, Lucy, is a reshuffle which won’t move the dial, a King’s Speech which won’t move the dial because no one in the real world pays much attention to the King’s Speech at all and no Autumn Statement, which, you know, there could be some surprises there. But as you pointed out a second ago, the macroeconomic situation with public finances is so grim that they have started becoming a little bit more honest about the fact there are no tax cuts around the corner.

Miranda Green
So Lucy, it seems to me that one of the only things that Sunak can do is just to push the general election back as far as he can get away with in a generally sort of Micawberish hope that something will turn up to help his poll ratings, to help him out of the hole that my colleagues here have just described. And that could mean that we’re waiting right until the very end of next winter . . . 

Lucy Fisher
Go on.

Miranda Green
For this general election.

Lucy Fisher
How long could we be waiting, Miranda?

Miranda Green
Well, they have to call it before the end of ’24, right, so that it can just edge in to January ’25. You know, it was clear at the Manchester Tory party conference they want to hold it in the autumn. But, you know, maybe they’ll just, he’ll just keep waiting.

Lucy Fisher
Just, I think we should pause there. You really think Rishi Sunak could cancel Christmas (Jim and Miranda laugh) for us, the media, for the footsoldiers on there hitting the pavements for MPs.

Miranda Green
So it’s a terrible thought, isn’t it?

Lucy Fisher
It is.

Miranda Green
But the psychology of it, to just hold on to the last moment, hoping for something better. And that, of course, is what John Major did. And you know, he was accused of, you know, clinging on to the lintel of Downing Street with his fingernails, you know. Is the impotence of Sunak’s own position, even though he’s prime minister, that is so stunning in this situation, right? To pick up on Jim’s point, almost the most scary by-election result for Rishi Sunak is one in which the Conservatives weren’t even a contender, ie, Rutherglen and Hamilton West, which showed you Labour’s path back to Downing Street via Scotland and the Tory party possibly seeing their voters doing a tactical unionist vote for Labour.

Lucy Fisher
Jim, I saw you wanting to come in there as we were talking about timing of the election. Do you think that optimism bias, the idea that something must turn up, could push it as far as January? 2025, of course.

Jim Pickard
It’s not impossible that the election is on my 50th birthday in January 2025. (Lucy laughs) Who knows? It’s not impossible. But the intervention I was gonna make is I’m pretty sure there will be a debate in Downing Street right now about yikes, do they return to the idea of Rishi Sunak, the guy who delivers the longstanding promises, the technocrat, the managerial guy, or do they stick with the kind of change they came up with in the wake of the last couple of months where you’re throwing stuff up in the air and cancelling projects and hoping that makes you look strong? I bet they’ll be debating that for the next couple of weeks.

Lucy Fisher
I’m sure you’re right. Stephen, let’s talk a bit about the pitfalls ahead for Starmer. Obviously, today, a very jubilant mood. He’s called it a historic moment for his party. I think that is fair, the sort of statistics and the comparisons bear that out to some extent. But there will now be a sort of rearguard effort, won’t there, to sort of temper expectations among the electorate just to ensure that people still know that they have to turn out on election day and also to try and, I guess, safeguard from complacency within the party.

Stephen Bush
Yeah. Keir Starmer is not often someone who shouts at his team, but one of the times that he did recently is when one of them said something like, oh, well, you know, we’re gonna win. And they will very strongly want to guard against that sense of, oh, it’s, you know, we’re home and dry, lads; not least because what is the vulnerability that stresses them out the most? It’s tax and spend. What is the central advantage for them in these by-elections but also the big problem? It’s, you know, to rehearse everything we’ve discussed already. It’s in there are a bunch of problems in which I would say it’s not obvious that aerated concrete is a solution requiring reform, not money. It’s not obvious that Tamworth’s not having its own police centre is something which you can fix by reform, not money.

And we all know that the end of the spending review period, which comes in 2025, is essentially fictional, right? Like, it’s basically Jeremy Hunt’s plans add up because at the end, a Conservative party which hasn’t been able to unite sufficiently to pass even some fairly trivial bits of public policy changes will find the political strength to remake the relationship between the citizen and the state. That’s obviously not going to happen. And I think the closer you get to that, the more Labour’s preferred position, which is no tax rises, no additional cuts. You know, don’t worry, we found a couple of, like, popular loopholes, like, you know, non-doms, changing the tax status of private schools a little bit. Things which raise like a couple of billion are going to touch the sides of this problem. I think the big risk of them is that the more you look at it, the more everyone goes like, that’s not true, is it? There’s gonna be £20bn of extra tax rises under Labour or something like that and that, I think, remains their biggest vulnerability.

Lucy Fisher
Can I just bring in Miranda here, our in-house Lib Dem expert? Where does this leave the Lib Dems? Obviously, it was an unusual three-way marginal in Mid Beds. They’ve obviously said they’re happy that they doubled their vote share in 2019, but still a little bit of a disappointing evening for them.

Miranda Green
Well, obviously they would have enjoyed bringing out their props for a fifth by-election win in a row (Lucy and Miranda laugh) and horrifying everyone with an even more extraordinary photo op. But they are sort of taking heart from the fact that they doubled their vote share in Mid Beds and in those rural villages. Those are the sorts of voters that they’re going for in all their Tory target seats.

And actually, this three-way fight to the death that we’ve seen in Mid Bedfordshire, which is why it’s so much fun for us, is a sort of anomaly and it doesn’t change the fundamentals of the electoral map, which is there are those Labour territories, as Stephen’s described. And there are the territories where you pull the yellow lever to get rid of your local Tory. And in fact, almost what happened in Mid Bedfordshire almost bolsters the argument for tactical voting elsewhere, actually, because it was such a definite difference between the towns that went so strongly Labour that they carried the day and the villages that went Lib Dem. Although, you know, if you’re the third party and you never get any oxygen, having a win helps you massively in terms of morale and your sort of overall argument.

Just to go back to your earlier discussion, I do think this is a really key point as to what happens to the Labour sort of sense of momentum that they’ve now got quite successfully at the moment and whether they can keep that going through next year as the holes in their programme become apparent under some scrutiny. And I do think that’s a problem for Starmer actually.

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Lucy Fisher
The events unfolding in Israel and Gaza have, of course, overshadowed domestic politics this week. We’ve seen Rishi Sunak undertake a whirlwind diplomatic tour of the Middle East. He’s met with the Israeli prime minister and president, the Saudi crown prince, the emir of Qatar and others. Jim, what’s your appraisal of Sunak’s performance on the world stage in this crisis so far?

Jim Pickard
So I think he’s done the right thing, which is just go out there and show solidarity with the Israelis. But I have a sort of sense of dread, having been a journalist at the time of 9/11 and what ensued afterwards. I think there are very clear parallels. You have an act of absolute despicable terrorism, shocking images, you know, people understandably furious and seeking vengeance. And then you have an unfolding tragedy that follows with thousands of deaths, which we’re already seeing in the Middle East, and then consequences which can spiral completely out of control.

And there was something about our prime minister standing with Benjamin Netanyahu and Netanyahu was using the phrase “axis of evil”, which of course, brings back memories of that period 20 years ago. And I think there was one phrase which Sunak used, which is “we want you to win”. At some point, he’s gonna have to answer the question, what does winning actually mean when you’re talking about pursuing a very, very heavily embedded terrorist group which actually runs this incredibly concentrated area of Gaza where millions of people live? How do you pursue that with tragic consequences for the civilian population?

Lucy Fisher
I think you’re absolutely right. It’s gonna get difficult. Stephen, I personally thought Sunak demonstrated quite a lot of emotional intelligence in what he said when he stood next to Netanyahu. Was he talking about the UK’s position that it stands four-square behind Israel’s right to self-defence? But the nuance of it was, you know, he was sort of urging Israel to abide by international law, really making the point in meetings with both Netanyahu and the Israeli president Isaac Herzog, that, you know, getting aid into Gaza is a really pressing issue. And also, I thought striking that, you know, he made reference to the horrific aftermath of that explosion in the hospital in Gaza this week. He didn’t follow the US by giving a snap appraisal that it was, you know, a Palestinian failed rocket behind that explosion, which I thought was just interesting. What have you made of his diplomatic attempts this week?

Stephen Bush
So in some ways, although I think you’re exactly right. And, you know, he showed a lot of emotional intelligence and he did it very well. In some ways, the most interesting thing about this is how unremarkable it is, right? This is part of the broader Rishi Sunak effect, which is that he is returning the United Kingdom to being a fairly normal European power. Similar approach and beyond China to most of our immediate neighbours, similar approach and beyond Ukraine as most of our immediate neighbours. And essentially the same strategy of — Gideon Rachman had a very good column — you know, hug Israel close and while at the same time going, whatever you do, really don’t go into Gaza and do try and open up it to aid.

Of course the problem is it’s not really clear to me how this strategy is gonna work, precisely as Jim says, right? The thing that understandably any democracy would want to do after being the victim of a terrorist attack is actually kind of hard to see if that’s even possible. Even harder to see if it’s impossible to do in a way without committing an awful lot of war crimes along the way.

Now, I know it’s a bit crass to then immediately segue to the domestic politics. Now, one of the ways this is easier for Rishi Sunak is that the voters who are going to be most disgusted and upset about the real-world consequences of trying to turn we must respond to this terrorist attack into a deliverable policy aren’t voters. He has a direct concern with winning. Almost everything he said, yes, they both play well in Israel, but in terms of the voters, he is, you know, he and the Conservatives are interested in is either a positive or no one particularly cares. The person who in some ways actually has the most to worry about Rishi Sunak’s visit failing is Keir Starmer.

Lucy Fisher
Yeah. Miranda, let’s talk about what a problem this is turning into for Labour. We’ve seen in the past week or so the first few councillors quit in protest of what they see as too strong a pro-Israeli line from the Labour leadership. We’ve had a few local constituency Labour party execs quit. There have been crunch talks with the leadership trying to stop this all snowballing, but it’s gonna get harder as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens, isn’t it?

Miranda Green
Yeah. I mean, as Stephen says, it seems a bit crass to sort of move from a very serious situation on the ground in Israel and Gaza back to our domestic politics. But in a sense, some of the most intense diplomacy that’s gone on this week has been, Yvette Cooper and David Lammy trying to meet with Muslim groups in the UK, trying to pacify objectors to the leadership line on Israel in their own backbenches. But more, as you say, the on-the-ground sort of grassroots Labour party who are very, very interested and always have been in the Palestinian cause. And I think that is a growing problem for Starmer actually.

And there was a particular clip of Keir Starmer on a radio show on LBC, which has gone completely viral with the people Starmer wouldn’t want to be obsessed with what he said, which is the people who think he’s too close to be supporting the Netanyahu government. And I do think there’s a slight way out of this for him because there’s so much dissent in Israel in terms of Netanyahu’s leadership and how they got into this situation, whether Netanyahu is the person to stick with once they’re out of this situation. So, you know, I think possibly a more subtle explanation of what’s happening in Israeli politics might help Starmer, but it’s a really difficult fix for them.

Lucy Fisher
Jim?

Jim Pickard
Yeah, I thought Starmer’s position was incredibly strong at the beginning, just showing complete solidarity, you know, shedding all those problems that beset the Labour party for years under Jeremy Corbyn, which of course ended up with being, you know, castigated by the human rights group for antisemitism that was happening within the party at the time. I think it starts off strongly, caught the tone of how the country felt about this completely savage murder of around 1,500 people in Israel. It was, as Miranda said, that one interview on LBC, and I’ve got it in front of me here ’cause this is the cause of all his problems since, was that he said Israel had the right to defend herself, “Hamas bears responsibility”. Keir Starmer’s asked, “a siege is appropriate, cutting off power, cutting off water, Sir Keir?” And he just went straight in and said, “I think Israel does have that right”. And just those words will be replayed and replayed again and again. And Labour’s tried to explain it since.

Lucy Fisher
He did then say within international law. But of course whether those two things are compatible is also another question.

Jim Pickard
Yeah, and I think at PMQs since he’s made more clear what he was trying to say and, you know, I guess in his defence when you’re doing a massive round of broadcast interviews, you’ll occasionally slightly misspeak. But unfortunately for him, that clip is now out there.

Lucy Fisher
Stephen, let’s move on just from talking about the specifics of the issues for the Labour party just to the UK more widely. I mean, there are concerns about a rise in anti-Semitism. There are concerns about community tensions in parts of the country. Where do you think this is going?

Stephen Bush
Well, the Community Security Trust research on this is very clear that about, that after what they refer to as “trigger events” in the Middle East, there is a spike above the resting level, as it were, of antisemitic incidents in the UK that lasts for about three years. And we are already seeing that play out. And we are also seeing a smaller but concomitant rise in Islamophobia through Tell Mama statistics as well. That will continue to play itself out because the further we get from the initial atrocity and the more that people’s minds are instead concentrated on the fact that the Israeli government’s objectives are essentially something that is impossible, then we would expect that to play out in the usual way.

The distinct feature of British politics is that compared to at the start of when the Conservatives went into office, when they had a broad let’s just try and get ethnic minority voters to vote for us more broadly, that focus has now narrowed. They are essentially a party that is interested in the votes of British Hindus, black British Africans and British Jews, and the Labour party competes with them for the votes of British Hindus, black British Africans, British Jews, but also of course relies on in many, many seats not to win, but to get on to the battlefield, the votes of British Muslims who are in, you know, some campaigning in on what’s happened or not, are demonised, particularly in some of the messaging to British Hindu voters in the grassroots: essentially Labour’s the Muslim party, you know, you can’t vote for Labour. And many British Muslims feel — I would actually say rightly — that the Labour party’s response to that has effectively been to try and kind of treat them as like an embarrassing relative they don’t want to talk about.

So one of the ways this is gonna play out politically is we shouldn’t forget that in addition to the election that the UK might have next year, India will have an election next year, and how Modi campaigns for things he says will have an impact on how British politicians are expected and asked to react. And one of the reasons why, yeah, I completely agree with everything Jim said about that clip. But one of the many problems with that clip is if you think Labour politicians are worried about how their reactions on Israel-Palestine are landing among the voters, then they rely on a need.

They are even more concerned about how they navigate a looming general election in India, in which all of those two intentions will be even more firmly on display. And I think one of the reasons why that clip is gonna have a very long afterlife, in addition to the way the conflict is going to play itself out, will be, I can actually already hear people saying, yeah, well, look, they weren’t with us on this. They weren’t with us on that. Now they won’t even say that Modi is, you know, Modi is problematic. That is the consequence of being a multiracial democracy. Other countries’ conflicts play out at home.

Jim Pickard
I guess the only caveat to that is that I’m not sure we expect British Muslims to suddenly flock to the Conservative party when Rishi Sunak’s view on Israel is even more hardline than Starmer’s.

Miranda Green
I suppose in the past we’ve seen George Galloway particularly sort of splinter off and take advantage with really divisive campaigns in local areas off to Labour’s left. And that I think would be a more real danger than them going to the Conservatives.

Stephen Bush
Well, this is the thing, right? Is that thus far Labour has been quite fortunate in that the councillors who’ve left are dotted around the country, whereas you know, in my home town of Tower Hamlets, they are still living with the consequences of the Iraq war electorally. Tower Hamlets is still run by a successor of George Galloway’s party. So what would trouble me were I in the Labour party is if you start to see defections of large groups of councillors in Bradford, Newham, places in which that Galloway coalition of trendy lefties and the Muslim working class can successfully elect independent MPs and councils. We have some way away from that, but I think it’s possible we might look on this as like the first step towards a return of that wider systemic problem for the Labour party.

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Lucy Fisher
Well, all we’ve got time for now is Political Fix’s stock picks. Miranda, who are you buying or selling this week?

Miranda Green
I’m investing heavily in Pat McFadden, who has always been one of my favourite Labour frontbenchers because of his incredibly controlled, dour demeanour. But even he couldn’t hide a tiny bit of optimism creeping in in reacting to Labour’s double win. And he’s now the campaigns chief and he’s a veteran of the Blair Downing Street years, so he knows where a lot of bodies are buried in terms of electoral strategy.

Lucy Fisher
Stephen?

Stephen Bush
(Inaudible) that perhaps slightly stupid and counterintuitive I’m gonna buy stock in Gillian Keegan because although the aerated concrete continues to be a big problem for the Conservative party, I think we’re now seeing the alternative version of her strategy, which was not to tell anyone about it and not to go early, playing out with jails and prisons. And I have started to hear Conservative MPs who were saying a month ago, what on earth was she doing, why haven’t we managed it, realising that actually, when you have this problem as a result of years of not making a decision, you don’t make it better by going, let’s just not talk about it. So I think her stock is in a healthier place than it was last time I think I sold. (Lucy laughs) So I’m just gonna buy back some of that.

Lucy Fisher
Great! Jim?

Jim Pickard
I’m gonna buy James Cleverly because I’ve just been very impressed by his handling of the, over the last few weeks, of the situation in Israel. I thought he’s always been a bit underestimated. And I think, you know, like Gillian Keegan, he speaks human and they are quite a rarity in the House of Commons, the successful politicians who don’t sound robotic and on message the whole time. I think Cleverly is one of those people who’s come through successfully and could go further, although that does rely on him being able to seduce the Conservative membership, which is a different question.

Miranda Green
Lucy, what about you?

Lucy Fisher
I’m buying Larry Fink, chief executive of BlackRock. I’m just really pleased this week to see after, you know, business leaders tend to be so anaemic and bland and refuse to enter the political fray and make any comment at all on politics that I was just pleased that he was willing to, he obviously follows it fairly closely. He obviously has a view and that he was willing to espouse it this week when talking to a rival newspaper with a financial bent and saying that what Starmer’s done with the Labour party after the Corbyn era shows that populism can be overcome and is a measurement of hope.

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And that’s it for this episode of the FT’s Political Fix. I’ve put links to subjects discussed in this episode in the show notes. Do check them out. There are articles we’ve made free for Political Fix listeners. There’s also a link there to Stephen’s award-winning Inside Politics newsletter. You’ll get 30 days free. And don’t forget to subscribe to the show. Plus, do leave a review or a star rating. It really helps spread the word.

Political Fix was presented by me, Lucy Fisher, and produced by Audrey Tinline. Manuela Saragosa is the executive producer. Original music and sound engineering by Breen Turner. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of audio. We’ll meet again here, same time, same place next week.

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