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Make sense of a disrupted world

Explore the new agenda

Gavyn Davies

Macro-economics Commentator

This blog is on macro-economics, economic policymaking and the financial markets. It usually appears on Sunday.

Gavyn Davies is now chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management and co-founder of Prisma Capital Partners. He was the head of the global economics department at Goldman Sachs from 1987-2001, and was chairman of the BBC from 2001-2004. He has also served as an economic policy adviser in No 10 Downing Street, an external adviser to the British Treasury, and as a visiting professor at the London School of Economics.

Readers are urged to seek professional advice before making any investments.

@gavyndavies (link opens in a new browser window)
@gavyndavies (link opens in a new browser window)

Add to myFT Digest

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  • Sunday, 22 September, 2019
    Federal Reserve
    Is the Fed making a mistake on inflation?

    Upside and downside both have risks and the FOMC is split on the way forward

    1 hour ago
  • Sunday, 15 September, 2019
    Chinese economy
    How China dodged a trade war recession

    Tariff shock was offset by devaluation and a judicious easing in domestic policy

  • Sunday, 8 September, 2019
    Global Economy
    Mario Draghi’s swansong at the ECB

    The governor leaves behind a battery of monetary weapons that are now misfiring 

  • Sunday, 28 July, 2019
    Global Economy
    Global policy adjusts to the surprising effects of trade wars

    China was expected to be the main casualty but that has not been the case so far

  • Sunday, 14 July, 2019
    US interest rates
    Will the Fed want more than ‘insurance cuts’ in rates?

    The FOMC thinks low growth and low inflation may be more persistent than expected

  • Sunday, 7 July, 2019
    Global Economy
    UK nears recession as Brexit deadline looms

    Business uncertainty is hitting Britain harder than many other economies 

  • Sunday, 30 June, 2019
    Global Economy
    World economy still vulnerable despite G20 tariff truce

    Trump-Xi talks neither a saviour nor a disaster for global growth

  • Sunday, 23 June, 2019
    Brexit
    Should the markets fear a Halloween Brexit?

    Boris Johnson is more determined than Jeremy Hunt to force a departure on October 31

  • Sunday, 16 June, 2019
    Yield curve
    Should we worry about an inverted yield curve?

    The recession indicator is not perfect but neither can it be ignored

  • Promoted Content
  • Sunday, 9 June, 2019
    US economy
    The Fed thinks it is 1995 all over again

    Tariffs raise US inflation but the central bank wants insurance against recession 

  • Sunday, 2 June, 2019
    Global trade
    How markets are reacting to the US-China trade war

    Last year’s global market panic has not been repeated this time — yet

  • Sunday, 19 May, 2019
    Japanese economy
    Abe contemplates a last throw of the economic dice

    With growth weak, Japan’s prime minister weighs a double election and fiscal stimulus

  • Sunday, 12 May, 2019
    US interest rates
    Fed grapples with low inflation and trade wars

    Markets expect rates to be cut but the FOMC may not agree

  • Sunday, 5 May, 2019
    Global Economy
    Eurozone to rebound on domestic and China stimulus 

    Despite lagging the global recovery the outlook is good

  • Sunday, 28 April, 2019
    Global Economy
    What you need to know about modern monetary theory

    MMT does not win much respect from economists, but investors should pay attention

  • Sunday, 14 April, 2019
    Eurozone economy
    ECB considers options to combat low inflation

    Draghi’s successor will need new weapons to reform monetary policy

  • Sunday, 7 April, 2019
    Global economic growth
    World economy may still defy the pessimists

    The sharp slowdown late in 2018 has stabilised but not yet reversed

  • Sunday, 31 March, 2019
    Global Economy
    Ten years of the great bull market

    What does this phenomenal rise in risk assets tell us about the future?

  • Sunday, 24 March, 2019
    Global Economy
    US corporate debt is high but not yet dangerous

    Financial balance is strong but the leveraged loan market is a pocket of elevated risk

  • Sunday, 10 March, 2019
    Chinese economy
    China’s cyclical recovery is picking up steam

    Growth rebounds as the threat of trade war recedes and domestic stimulus takes effect

  • Sunday, 3 March, 2019
    US Inflation
    Federal Reserve’s fundamental rethink about inflation

    Can monetary regime prevent US from morphing into eurozone or Japan in next recession?

  • Sunday, 24 February, 2019
    Global Economy
    Alarm bells ring for the Goldilocks world economy

    Advanced economies, particularly the eurozone, are still weakening sharply

  • Sunday, 17 February, 2019
    US-China trade dispute
    China’s new trade offer is better than a tariff war

    Xi Jinping’s plan would turn the country into a deficit economy

  • Monday, 11 February, 2019
    Global Economy
    How American women can help the Fed

    Female labour participation is rising again, relaxing supply constraints on the economy

  • Sunday, 3 February, 2019
    Opinion
    Why is Germany flirting with recession?

    China is an important factor but temporary shocks are another cause

Previous You are on page 1 Next

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