Xi Jinping’s plan would turn the country into a deficit economy

Female labour participation is rising again, relaxing supply constraints on the economy

China is an important factor but temporary shocks are another cause

Many observers believe global recession risks are high this year

QE had significant economic and market impact but QT will not be so important

A global recession is unlikely this year, unless a bear market causes one

Federal Reserve chief indicates the rate pause that could have come in December 

Markets became much more treacherous in 2018 as the global cycle matured

Rise in inflation swaps has occurred at a time when those in other major economies have fallen markedly 

Forward markets now show only one rate hike in 2019

As the US economy slows down, China will be pivotal for global growth in 2019

Equities have come under pressure even though a recession seems unlikely

Eurozone returns to ‘old normal’ after last year’s temporary surge

Higher mortgage rates will not cause a repeat of the 2006-08 slump 

October’s collapse in equities may reflect weaker global growth

The post-election bull market is changing at midterm

A no-deal departure from the EU would greatly complicate UK fiscal and monetary policy 

Labour has shifted its view on a ‘people’s vote’ but formidable obstacles remain

Low wage inflation fuelled the bull market but this is now changing

Central banks have not honed their weapons for the next downturn