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Gavyn Davies

Macro-economics Commentator

Gavyn Davies is chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management and co-founder of Active Partners and Anthos Capital. He was the head of the global economics department at Goldman Sachs from 1987-2001 and chairman of the BBC from 2001-2004. He has also served as an economic policy adviser in No 10 Downing Street, and an external adviser to the British Treasury. He is a visiting fellow at Balliol College, Oxford.

Readers are urged to seek professional advice before making any investments.

@gavyndavies (link opens in a new browser window)
@gavyndavies (link opens in a new browser window)

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  • Sunday, 23 February, 2020
    UK public finances
    Rishi Sunak’s fiscal expansion is long overdue

    Even after a large stimulus, the UK’s public finances would be healthier than the US’s

  • Sunday, 16 February, 2020
    Global Economy
    A crossover of fiscal and monetary policy

    The twin pillars need to work together in the next recession

  • Sunday, 9 February, 2020
    Global Economy
    The Fed’s new inflation regime

    Forthcoming decisions on average targeting will determine future monetary policy

  • Sunday, 2 February, 2020
    Climate change
    Steven Mnuchin is wrong about climate economics

    The US Treasury secretary is dismissing the risks far too lightly

  • Sunday, 26 January, 2020
    Global Economy
    Signs of a global recovery in manufacturing

    Markets are right to be optimistic that industrial sector will soon rebound

  • Sunday, 19 January, 2020
    Global Economy
    Trump’s trade wars have not been ‘easy to win’ 

    The US-China phase one trade deal will ease some self-inflicted economic damage

  • Sunday, 12 January, 2020
    Global Economy
    Central banks begin to grapple with climate change

    The Fed lags behind the ECB as monetary policy faces a challenge-turned-emergency

  • Sunday, 29 December, 2019
    Global Economy
    The algorithms’ vision for 2020

    What should we expect in the economies and markets next year?

  • Friday, 6 December, 2019
    Global Economy
    The consequences of ultra-low US unemployment

    The American labour market is entering largely unexplored territory

  • Promoted Content
  • Sunday, 24 November, 2019
    Global Economy
    The risks to sterling from the UK general election

    There is talk of an impending currency crisis but how likely is that?

  • Sunday, 17 November, 2019
    Global Economy
    Can automatic fiscal stabilisers replace monetary policy?

    The measures could be effective but will be politically difficult to implement

  • Sunday, 10 November, 2019
    Global Economy
    Can markets repeat the 2016-18 boom?

    As global activity stabilises, risk assets have started to recover 

  • Sunday, 3 November, 2019
    US interest rates
    Here is what’s going on with the yield curve 

    Bond markets are not convinced that the Federal Reserve has done enough

  • Sunday, 20 October, 2019
    Global Economy
    US corporate debt triggers recession concerns

    The weakness in company finances is a danger to the rest of the economy

  • Sunday, 13 October, 2019
    Global Economy
    China bucks the trend with solid activity growth

    Alternative data trackers suggest the country is avoiding other big economies’ gloom

  • Sunday, 6 October, 2019
    US interest rates
    Can Trump force the Fed to cut rates?

    The central bank has been the target of extraordinary tweets threatening its independence

  • Sunday, 29 September, 2019
    Global Economy
    Entrenched uncertainty is a global problem

    It started with Brexit but is now depressing worldwide capital investment 

  • Sunday, 22 September, 2019
    Federal Reserve
    Is the Fed making a mistake on inflation?

    Upside and downside both have risks and the FOMC is split on the way forward

  • Sunday, 15 September, 2019
    Chinese economy
    How China dodged a trade war recession

    Tariff shock was offset by devaluation and a judicious easing in domestic policy

  • Sunday, 8 September, 2019
    Global Economy
    Mario Draghi’s swansong at the ECB

    The governor leaves behind a battery of monetary weapons that are now misfiring 

  • Sunday, 28 July, 2019
    Global Economy
    Global policy adjusts to the surprising effects of trade wars

    China was expected to be the main casualty but that has not been the case so far

  • Sunday, 14 July, 2019
    US interest rates
    Will the Fed want more than ‘insurance cuts’ in rates?

    The FOMC thinks low growth and low inflation may be more persistent than expected

  • Sunday, 7 July, 2019
    Global Economy
    UK nears recession as Brexit deadline looms

    Business uncertainty is hitting Britain harder than many other economies 

  • Sunday, 30 June, 2019
    Global Economy
    World economy still vulnerable despite G20 tariff truce

    Trump-Xi talks neither a saviour nor a disaster for global growth

  • Sunday, 23 June, 2019
    Brexit
    Should the markets fear a Halloween Brexit?

    Boris Johnson is more determined than Jeremy Hunt to force a departure on October 31

Previous You are on page 1 Next

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