Central banks have not honed their weapons for the next downturn

None of the central bank’s indicators have risen in line with the official target

Rising inflation and lower growth pose new problems for monetary policy

Domestic demand slowed in May, but easier fiscal and monetary policy can prevent a recession

Despite the pessimistic narrative, US and China activity data remain strong for now

Protectionist measures are negligible so far but markets are now focusing on escalation

Emerging markets currency crash has left Fed chairman Powell unmoved

Important monetary policy meetings are due next week in the US, eurozone and Japan

China and the US are growing above trend but Italy poses a major risk

The FOMC is not raising its estimate of equilibrium rates despite the fiscal stimulus

State of the UK economy is precarious and the BoE has recognised the risks

European slowdown spreading to US, but China remains steady

Rising yields and crude prices have hit confidence, but will not cause a bear market yet

Unsustainable borrowing may cause a clash with the Fed, but not a solvency crisis

After spurt last year the economy has suddenly fallen behind the rest of the world

Higher than expected US inflation is bigger threat than global trade war fears

China’s response to US tariffs has been measured but the end game is uncertain

Economists are taught trade wars are almost always damaging. The question for investors is: how damaging?

Package widely criticised but research suggests supply-side benefits for economy

Cyclical surge has slowed down but the US and China seem fine … for now

Powell was the continuity candidate for the Fed chair but he faces issues that will soon force him to get off the fence

A large fiscal boost so late in the US cycle will add to pressure on the Fed

Volatility is back as equity markets pay attention to inflation and interest rate risks

With term premia now back to ‘normal’ bonds look better underpinned