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Gavyn Davies

Macro-economics Commentator

Gavyn Davies is chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management and co-founder of Active Partners and Anthos Capital. He was the head of the global economics department at Goldman Sachs from 1987-2001 and chairman of the BBC from 2001-2004. He has also served as an economic policy adviser in No 10 Downing Street, and an external adviser to the British Treasury. He is a visiting fellow at Balliol College, Oxford.

Readers are urged to seek professional advice before making any investments.

@gavyndavies (link opens in a new browser window)
@gavyndavies (link opens in a new browser window)

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  • Sunday, 18 October, 2020
    Japanese economy
    Japan’s Suga inherits an economy stabilised by Abenomics

    The country is no longer such an obvious outlier among its peers

  • Sunday, 4 October, 2020
    Global Economy
    Global goods sector drives economic recovery

    Markets are reflecting sectoral shifts in the world economy as services lag behind manufacturing

  • Sunday, 20 September, 2020
    Global Economy
    Expect long-term economic scarring from Covid-19

    Forecasts for GDP growth look optimistic, but the risks of permanent losses are worrying

  • Sunday, 13 September, 2020
    Bank of England
    The Bank of England’s message on monetary financing needs clarity

    The central bank’s gilt purchases have been justified but could pose long-term risks for financial stability

  • Sunday, 6 September, 2020
    US Inflation
    The Fed risks higher inflation to boost jobs

    The US central bank’s new monetary framework takes policy back to the 1960s 

  • Sunday, 2 August, 2020
    Global economic recovery
    The anatomy of a very brief bear market

    Dramatic changes in the equity risk premium may have caused US stock market volatility

  • Sunday, 19 July, 2020
    Coronavirus economic impact
    US Covid-19 surge could trigger a double-dip recession

    Markets are ignoring the possibility that severe lockdowns may be needed in many states

  • Sunday, 12 July, 2020
    Global Economy
    Central banks expand their role to address the crisis

    Far from being impotent, they have again been crucial actors in the pandemic

  • Sunday, 5 July, 2020
    US employment
    Big data suggests a difficult recovery in US jobs market

    Private sources paint a detailed and worrying picture of the labour market after the Covid-19 shock

  • Promoted Content
  • Sunday, 28 June, 2020
    Global Economy
    The safe-asset shortage after Covid-19

    Demand has outstripped supply since 2009 but the latest crisis may help to redress the balance

  • Sunday, 21 June, 2020
    Global Economy
    Will public debt be a problem when the Covid-19 crisis is over?

    There is unanimity about macroeconomic policy for now, but not about exit strategy

  • Sunday, 7 June, 2020
    Global Economy
    Covid debt mountains are a challenge for next decade

    Treasury bond issuance and central bank QE must work in tandem for economic recovery

  • Sunday, 31 May, 2020
    Global Economy
    Covid-19 effects could deepen secular stagnation

    Monetary policy as we know it has become redundant. Central banks’ golden era is probably over

  • Saturday, 23 May, 2020
    Global Economy
    Penny-pinching consumers may spell trouble for recovery

    US savings rates are pushing towards record highs

  • Sunday, 17 May, 2020
    Global Economy
    Why the US jobless surge is worse than in Europe

    America’s emergency aid supports those made unemployed instead of preventing lay-offs

  • Sunday, 3 May, 2020
    Global Economy
    After lockdown, economic sunlight or a long hard slog?

    Equities imply that economic activity will swiftly return to previous peaks 

  • Tuesday, 28 April, 2020
    AnalysisFT Alphaville
    Inflation figures are about to get fuzzier

    Official data will show prices falling drastically but might not be a fair reflection of what’s really going on.

  • Sunday, 26 April, 2020
    Global Economy
    The deflation threat from the virus will be long lasting

    Supply lockdowns could cause bigger declines in global demand, with falling prices 

  • Sunday, 19 April, 2020
    Global Economy
    The SDR is an idea whose time has come

    An issue of new special drawing rights would help the world economy, if done correctly

  • Sunday, 5 April, 2020
    Coronavirus pandemic
    Do not count on a fast global economy bounceback

    A very sudden stop has happened but that does not mean a sudden start will follow

  • Sunday, 29 March, 2020
    Global Economy
    Can the world afford stimulus on this scale?

    Policy injection is more dramatic than what we saw after financial crash

  • Sunday, 22 March, 2020
    Global Economy
    A strategy for dysfunctional US Treasuries market

    Fed could try yield curve control on bonds, as Japan and Australia have done

  • Saturday, 14 March, 2020
    Global Economy
    Why the Fed dislikes negative rates

    Evidence is not conclusive that such a change restores confidence and economic activity

  • Friday, 6 March, 2020
    Federal Reserve
    How close is the US economy to recession?

    The Federal Reserve will be watching the labour market before pushing the panic button

  • Sunday, 1 March, 2020
    Coronavirus pandemic
    What can macro policymakers do about coronavirus?

    The global economy faces a demand shock focused on services and consumer spending

Previous You are on page 1 Next

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