Transcript: Swamp Notes — Donald Trump takes on Nato (again)

This is an audio transcript of the FT News Briefing podcast episode: ‘Swamp Notes — Donald Trump takes on Nato (again)’

Marc Filippino
As President Donald Trump called Nato unfair and obsolete, he even privately threatened to withdraw from the military alliance. Now, fast forward to today. Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee. But this time there’s a war in Europe. So is his anti-Nato talk making US allies even more nervous?

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Marc Filippino
This is Swamp Notes, the weekly podcast from the FT News Briefing, where we talk about all of the things happening in the 2024 US presidential election. I’m Marc Filippino, and this week we look into how the election might impact one of America’s most important military alliances. Here with me today is Lauren Fedor. She’s the FT’s US political correspondent and our deputy Washington bureau chief. Hi, Lauren.

Lauren Fedor
Hi, Marc.

Marc Filippino
And I’ve also got with us Alec Russell, who serves as the FT’s foreign editor based in London. Hi, Alec.

Alec Russell
Hello, Marc.

Marc Filippino
So Donald Trump shared some, I guess, head-turning thoughts about Nato recently while he was on the stump in South Carolina. Let’s take a listen.

Donald Trump
 . . . question: one of the presidents of a big country, he stood up, said, “Well, sir, if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?” I said, “You didn’t pay, you’re delinquent?” He said yes. Let’s say that happened. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want (Crowd cheers, whistles). You got to pay. You got to pay your bill.

Marc Filippino
Alec, he hinted at it there. But what is Donald Trump’s specific gripe with Nato?

Alec Russell
His specific gripe with Nato is very simple, Marc. His specific gripe is over money. Trump has seized on a decades-old debate that’s been bubbling away in America, which is that European members of Nato spend far less on defence and far less on Nato per head of the population than America does. And so the argument goes, Europe has been freeloading under America’s defence umbrella. And this has got to stop. And it is true that until very recently, fewer than half of Nato’s members had met the target of spending 2 per cent of their GDP on defence. And this has been a long-running gripe for America. And it’s all now come to a head.

Marc Filippino
Sure. And money has a lot to do with it. But it’s not just a budget thing. Right, Lauren?

Lauren Fedor
No, I mean, it’s a philosophical thing for Trump too, right? Besides “Make America Great Again”, his tagline in 2016 was “America First” and it’s his tagline again now as he tries to become president once again. He believes that the American government, his administration, should be focused on American issues and not be so concerned with issues overseas. He also just doesn’t like the idea of being in a multilateral, global club. He likes to make his own decisions, do his own thing and not have anyone tell him what to do.

Marc Filippino
And I have to assume that that plays well with voters. What are you hearing when you talk to people out in the street?

Lauren Fedor
Well, look, it depends on which voters you’re talking to. If you’re talking to the Trump base, the people who turn out to his rallies, the true diehard, right-wing Republicans, this is red meat for them. They feel this way quite strongly, and they’re increasingly isolationist in their mindset compared to Republicans of decades prior. That’s not to say that they represent all Republicans, though. And when I go to an event with, say, Nikki Haley, who is still trying to stop Donald Trump from becoming the Republican nominee, a lot of the voters I talk to, they’re, they strike a very different tone, and they talk about America’s role on the world stage, America being a leader in the world. So it’s not to say that the Trump base is the only voice out there, but it’s certainly a dominant one.

Marc Filippino
And what happens if Trump wins? Alec? I mean, he’s got such a strong voice against Nato now. I mean, how does that develop in 2025 when he, if, he takes...

Lauren Fedor
If, Marc, not when.

Marc Filippino
If he takes a second term in office.

Alec Russell
Well, this is deeply, deeply alarming Nato and its members. The leaders of whom are meeting many of them in Munich this weekend to discuss this very point. The concern for America’s Nato partners is that they are going to have to provide all the defence for Ukraine, and somehow they’re going to have to transform their own defence industries and their own munitions supplies to make up for the potential loss of American support. That is a huge, huge deficit to fill if it is the case that America pulls back from Nato. So this is really, really, stressful, should I say, for Nato.

Marc Filippino
Does he have a point, though? About European contribution to Nato and its security responsibilities?

Alec Russell
Yes. Inasmuch as Nato has been freeloading somewhat. But you can have a point, and it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the right thing to do to act on it. And that’s where I would return to the word “Ukraine”. So if America just backs away from Ukraine, it will be very hard immediately for Europe to fill the deficit of the lack of American weaponry, and that could be catastrophic for Ukraine.

Marc Filippino
Lauren, I have to imagine that the Biden administration is looking at Trump’s comments and pouncing on them as an opportunity.

Lauren Fedor
Couple things. President Joe Biden agrees with what Alec just said about the catastrophic possibility of what would happen if the west abandoned Ukraine. Now, cynically, as a politician who’s trying to seek re-election, he’s obviously making a very clear point of delineating his position from Donald Trump’s position. And he said as much earlier this week when he spoke to reporters at the White House.

Joe Biden
No other president in our history has ever bowed down to a Russian dictator. Let me say this as clearly as I can: I never will. For God’s sake, it’s dumb. It’s shameful. It’s dangerous. It’s un-American.

Lauren Fedor
And, you know, President Biden was speaking to several audiences there, right? He was talking to the American public. He was talking in some ways to Donald Trump, but he’s also talking to people on Capitol Hill, in Congress where there has been this frustratingly protracted process to try to get more aid for Ukraine through both the House and the Senate. That process has stalled now once again, and Biden is continuing his effort to try to use the bully pulpit effectively to twist the arms of some Republicans on Capitol Hill who are very loyal to President Trump.

Marc Filippino
What is he trying to convey to our European allies?

Lauren Fedor
That you can you can count on us, right? He wants them to feel reassured that America is still in their corner. Obviously, he’s got to win re-election if he’s going to continue to be the president going to those high-level important meetings and maintaining those alliances. But he’s trying to preserve those relationships, right?

Alec Russell
That’s quite reassuring. But not very reassuring to many Europeans watching, I’m afraid. Because everyone knows that, there’s an election in November and that, yes, Donald Trump may not be elected, but he may be elected. And so right now, all of America’s allies, both in Europe and elsewhere in the world, are thinking very, very hard about how they should reconfigure themselves, and how they should rethink their regional alliances in case an isolationist president is in the White House.

Marc Filippino
For a while, we’ve reported that Russian president Vladimir Putin’s long-term strategy is to split the western alliance supporting Ukraine. Does it seem like the strategy is working?

Alec Russell
Well, there’s a handful of countries. In fact, there’s one country in Nato — Hungary — which is not remotely keen on the idea of Ukraine joining Nato or joining the European Union. But the bulk of Nato is totally, totally united. And the argument is this, I mean, I’ve been in Ukraine, Marc. And I share the argument, if we the west pull the rug out from under Ukraine, do we think that that Russia is just going to say, “Oh, great. Thank you. Now we’re going to pull all the troops back to barracks across Russia, and we’ll never trouble anyone ever again”. I’m not saying that that in itself would be fine, but that’s not going to happen anyway, because that’s not what imperialists do when imperialists have a success. They think, “Right, where do I go from here?”

Lauren Fedor
Trump still has an opponent in this primary race, Nikki Haley. I mean, she makes a version of that argument. And, you know, there are voters who respond well to it. But all of that said, I think we can’t ignore the fact that what President Putin says and does still does get eyeballs here in America and does still kind of make waves, you know, and I think this interview that he did with Tucker Carlson this month is an example of that, that drew a lot of attention here in the US. And then more recently this week, he spoke to, I believe, it was Russian television, saying that he’d actually prefer having Joe Biden as president instead of Donald Trump. It’s an odd statement obviously for many reasons, but it kind of, in my opinion, seems very clearly to be an attempt to undercut one of Biden’s messages to the American electorate heading into November, which is that Putin and the other dictators around the world would much rather have Donald Trump than him.

Marc Filippino
All right, we’re going to take a quick break. And when we come back, we’re going to do exit poll. I’m excited about this one. So stay tuned.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

[UNHEDGED TRAILER PLAYING]

Marc Filippino
We are back with Exit Poll. Where we talk about something that didn’t happen on the campaign trail and apply rigorous political analysis to it. This week we’re tackling a big one. Political comedian Jon Stewart is back hosting The Daily Show after a nine-year hiatus. His comeback episode was on Monday, and even though he’s considered a voice for the left, he certainly wasn’t pulling any punches with Trump or Biden.

Jon Stewart
We have two candidates who are chronologically outside the norm of anyone who has run for the presidency in this country, in the history of this country. They are the oldest people ever to run for president, breaking by only four years the record that they set! (Audience laugh) The last time they ran, they are ...

Marc Filippino
So, Alec, Lauren, after hearing that clip, what do you think? Is Jon Stewart being back? Good or bad for Biden?

Lauren Fedor
Well, I think it’s great that Jon Stewart is back on the air. He’s obviously super talented and a very funny guy. I think, you know, you said that he’s been a kind of icon on the left. Yeah, I think his audience tends to skew more democratic, but he’s an equal opportunity comedian in my eyes. And he can give it to Biden just as hard as he can give it to Trump.

Alec Russell
So I would like to ask a different question at you, Marc. I would like to ask if Jon Stewart coming back is good or bad for Jon Stewart.

Marc Filippino
Oh, oh. All right.

Alec Russell
Second, a second chapter, the same story? We’ve seen it once or twice before. We see it in the corporate world I guess with Bob Iger. They don’t normally work out well though, do they?

Marc Filippino
Yeah. Quit while you’re ahead, right? Well, either way, good or bad, I’m probably going to watch it. I want to thank our guests on today’s episode. Lauren Fedor, the FT’s US political correspondent and deputy Washington bureau chief. Thank you so much, Lauren.

Lauren Fedor
Thanks, Marc.

Marc Filippino
And Alec Russell, who serves as the FT’s foreign editor. He’s based in London. Thanks, Alec.

Alec Russell
Thank you. Marc.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Marc Filippino
This was Swamp Notes, the US politics show from the FT News Briefing. It’s produced by Ethan Plotkin, Lauren Fedor and Sonja Hutson. Special thanks this week to Fiona Symon and always, Pierre Nicholson. I’m your host, Marc Filippino. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz and Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of audio. Check back next week for more US political analysis from the Financial Times.

[MUSIC PLAYING]