Transcript: Nato says don’t underestimate Russia

This is an audio transcript of the FT News Briefing podcast episode: ‘Nato says don’t underestimate Russia’ 

Marc Filippino
Good morning for the Financial Times. Today is Thursday, November 30th. And this is your FT News Briefing.

Nato says that Russia is ready for a tough assault against Ukraine this winter. And a giant health insurance merger in the US might catch the attention of regulators. Plus, the Iranian government is very clearly pro-Palestinian, but the issue is much more complex for its citizens.

Najmeh Bozorgmehr
A taxi driver asked me last week why Hamas had attacked Israel in the first place and why Israeli leaders were so brutally killing civilians in Gaza.

Marc Filippino
I’m Marc Filippino, and here’s the news you need to start your day.

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Nato’s foreign ministers met in Brussels earlier this week. Their focus was on the war in Ukraine. Now the conflict has stalled in a lot of ways over the past few months. The front lines are looking pretty static. But at the meeting, Nato’s secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg had a stark warning.

Jens Stoltenberg
We must not underestimate Russia.

The FT’s Henry Foy has been following the meetings and he joins me now. Hey, Henry.

Henry Foy
Hey, Marc.

Marc Filippino
So tell me a little bit about what Stoltenberg had to say about the war in Ukraine. What does he think Russia is capable of?

Henry Foy
Yes, you’re right about his warning. He was saying, look, you know, we’ve degraded Russia’s economy with sanctions. However, we shouldn’t underestimate them. And his specific warning was that Russia had amassed a large . . . what he called a large missile stockpile ahead of the winter. And he said that Russia would use that stockpile to strike Ukraine’s, quote, power grid and energy infrastructure. This is, of course, what Russia attempted to do last year with quite a lot of success. And so by targeting that, Russia is effectively bringing the war to Ukrainian civilians, and during the very, very cold months of the Ukrainian winter, leaving people without heat, electricity or hot water.

Marc Filippino
So that’s what’s going on with Russia’s military. What about Ukraine’s armed forces? How’s Kyiv feeling about the winter?

Henry Foy
Well, there’s actually quite a lot of nervousness as to the depth of support in the west for Ukraine. I mean, obviously, the war in the Middle East has taken a lot of geopolitical focus away. The fact that the front line is now stalled, it means the western countries could be distracted and take their eye off and not think that Ukraine is a pressing need. We’ve seen the White House continue to fail to pass a $60bn funding package for Ukraine through Congress. The EU is still squabbling among itself over its €50bn package for Ukraine. So yeah, there is a lot of nervousness in Kyiv about how long this would last despite, you know, the protestations continued refrain we hear that the west will stand with Ukraine. So I think we should see Stoltenberg warning in that context. He’s trying to make sure western countries remain focused.

Marc Filippino
And as I understand it, one big commitment that the west has made to Ukraine is the possible membership in the Nato alliance. Did yesterday’s meeting reveal anything on that front?

Henry Foy
Yeah, that’s absolutely right. That’s I mean, the one thing that Nato as an organisation can do is make Ukraine a member. The US, Germany, other countries have said, look, the time is not right now that our country at war. But what we need to do is keep Ukraine, keep the government and Ukraine engaged with this process. And so a lot of the meetings this week were focused on that, reminding Ukraine of the reforms that Nato wants them to do, these defence reforms — the way they organise their army, some amount of rule of law. And so that’s a, if you like, a sort of parallel track of this conflict. It’s saying, guys, even though you’re still in this brutal, horrendous fight with Russia, if you can keep progressing on this path to Nato, at the end of the war when there’s peace, you’re going to have this brilliant prize, which is membership of the US-led western military alliance.

Marc Filippino
Henry, what I’m hearing is, is that there’s a disconnect between the way Nato’s members talk and the actions that they’re actually doing to support Ukraine. What would it take in order to make this a front and centre priority again, and for them to take quicker action?

Henry Foy
I think most governments are not sort of trying to be two-faced here. I think most of them do wish they could act exactly as they’re saying. However, there’s huge pressures on these governments. You know, the cost of living crisis that is putting pressure on budgets. There’s public opinion shifting towards maybe more of a deal for peace here. Ukraine has found itself almost a victim of its own success by holding back the Russian invasion. And actually, what Ukraine is saying is, no, just because we managed to hold the line over the last year and it doesn’t look like the front line is going to move very much over the winter, that doesn’t mean you can give up on us, we need continued support to be able to hold this in place.

Marc Filippino
Henry Foy is the FT’s Brussels bureau chief. Thanks, Henry.

Henry Foy
Thanks a lot, Marc.

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Marc Filippino
Sources tell the FT that US insurance giants Cigna and Humana are considering a merger. That deal would create an American health insurance company worth about $140bn. And if it gets done by the end of the year, it would be the biggest deal of 2023. But that’s if the agreement goes through. The US is a tough place to get big mergers done right now. Antitrust regulators are really going after high-profile transactions and deals in the healthcare sector. Cigna and Humana have tried other mergers in the past few years. Both of them were struck down. One source told the FT that Cigna may sell some of its assets to pre-empt any pushback from regulators and get the deal through.

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Iran’s government supports anti-Israeli militants like Hizbollah and Hamas, and people are worried its support could turn the Gaza conflict into a regional war. But ordinary Iranians have mixed feelings about their government’s stance. That’s according to the FT’s Tehran correspondent Najmeh Bozorgmehr. In a special dispatch for the FT News Briefing, she tells us what she’s heard from Iranian citizens.

Najmeh Bozorgmehr
The first time I witnessed a spontaneous pro-Palestine gathering was 20 years ago when I was doing a master’s degree in London. I was astonished to see European students expressing such passionate support for Palestinians and criticism of Israel. My home country, Iran, is a theocracy which has prioritised the liberation of Palestine and the annihilation of Israel. Annual pro-Palestine rallies at the end of the holy month of Ramadan are organised by the state and packed with loyalists. It is almost unimaginable, however, that there would be a rally in Iran on the same scale as those taking place in London, Washington or Berlin. Many Iranians believe Palestinians have been dealt a historic injustice, but they also disapprove of the support the Islamic regime provides for anti-Israel militants in the region, including Hamas. These mixed feelings have become more complicated since the October 7 attacks. A taxi driver asked me last week why Hamas had attacked Israel in the first place and why Israeli leaders were so brutally killing civilians in Gaza. I don’t care about each side’s religion. I care about humanity, he said.

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Iran is an increasingly secular society and it is hard to argue, as the regime would like to, that one should support Palestinians solely because they are Muslims. While the Islamic Republic regularly threatens to wipe Israel off the map and supports militias that have attacked the Jewish state, there has been little history of antisemitism in Iran. Iran was one of the few countries that accepted Jewish refugees from Europe during the second world war. It is still home to the largest Jewish population in the Middle East outside Israel. Regardless of public opinion, Iran’s leadership will continue to back the Palestinian cause while supporting the axis of resistance via militant groups. In the meantime, Iranian people may not be out on the streets, but the number who believe the volatile Middle East could do without more bloodshed, Islamophobia or antisemitism is growing faster than ever.

Marc Filippino
That was the FT’s Tehran correspondent Najmeh Bozorgmehr.

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Before we go, former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger has died. Kissinger served under presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford in the 1970s. He’s known for opening US relations with China and ending America’s war in Vietnam. Kissinger became a historian and scholar after his diplomatic career ended. He died at his Connecticut home on Wednesday, according to his consultancy Kissinger Associates. He was 100 years old.

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You can read more on all of these stories at FT.com for free when you click the links in our show notes. This has been your daily FT News Briefing. Make sure you check back tomorrow for the latest business news.

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