Donald Trump gets a cash reprieve — and a new court date

Good morning. I’m in for Steff this week. In today’s newsletter we’re talking about:

• Donald Trump’s legal sagas

• The Maga machine’s preparation for a second term

• Why it’s no longer “the economy, stupid”

Yesterday was a mixed bag for Donald Trump in terms of legal outcomes.

The good news for the former president: on the deadline for Trump to post a bond to cover a $464mn fraud judgment, a New York appeals court said it would allow him to post just $175mn to delay its enforcement.

The announcement was a win for Trump, who otherwise risked having the New York attorney-general’s office seize his cash and properties. A panel of five justices at the appeals court gave Trump 10 days to find the new sum.

As that decision was announced, Trump was across the road at a separate court, attending a hearing on whether he’d be able to further delay his criminal trial over the alleged cover-up of “hush money” payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels. This is where Trump’s luck seemed to run out.

Judge Juan M Merchan rejected Trump’s request to postpone the trial, setting jury selection to begin on April 15 in what will be the first criminal trial against a former US president.

But Trump stands to extend his good fortune today when his social media company begins trading on Nasdaq. In pre-market trading Trump Media & Technology Group, the company behind the former president’s Truth Social website, had risen 20 per cent. If the surge is sustained it could provide Trump with a potential $3bn windfall.

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

• Joe Biden’s allies have been working to get hardline Republicans on the ballot in November. Will Democrats’ strategy pay off? [Free to read.] Reporter Lauren Fedor was also on the Swamp Notes podcast to talk about her story.

• If Trump renewed his 2017 tax cuts during a second term, it would add another $5tn to the federal debt between 2026 and 2035, according to the think-tank Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

• The New York Times reports that Robert F Kennedy Jr, who is running for president as an independent, is expected to pick Silicon Valley lawyer Nicole Shanahan as his running mate. (NYT)

• Vice-president Kamala Harris has been cast as the leading player to court young, minority voters that have soured on Joe Biden. (Washington Post)

Behind the scenes

On the surface the Trump campaign often seems chaotic, but behind the scenes there is a new sense of ruthlessness and determination to his latest bid for the presidency, the FT’s James Politi reports.

To get a sense of Trump’s inner circle, James spoke to more than a dozen people involved directly or indirectly with the 2024 campaign. He compiled a comprehensive picture of seasoned campaign operatives and a tight-knit entourage of former officials that are eager to apply the former president’s ideas.

Trump has also benefited from remaking the party machinery in his own image, from an overhaul at the Republican National Committee to installing Maga allies such as Mike Johnson to top positions in Congress.

Overall, Trump’s White House strategy is two-pronged: the first task is to reverse many of Biden’s moves over the past three years, while the second is a revenge mission against his political opponents. If he’s elected in November, these are the people who are likely to help him carry it out. [Free to read]

After reporting his story, James had this to share with US Election Countdown readers:

This inner circle is still somewhat narrow, but it is paired with a more effective campaign machinery, broader support in Congress, and an ecosystem of think-tanks which should make it easier to implement his policies compared to the last time . . . .

Many Democrats look at Trump’s campaign and say his policies are way too extreme, he’s struggling to finance his campaign to compete effectively in the swing states, and he has personally failed to move to the centre in a way that can attract support from swing voters. But the polling averages say that Trump may be slightly ahead now, so it will be an epic general election battle that could go down to the wire in November. 

Datapoints

“It’s the economy, stupid.” US political strategist James Carville uttered this as being one of the keys to Bill Clinton winning the presidency in 1992. In the US, economic sentiment has long been tied to voters’ feelings about the incumbent party, as John Burn-Murdoch wrote last week.

But this correlation has become unmoored. Even as Americans’ view of the economy has turned more positive in the past 18 months, it has not done anything for Biden’s approval ratings. The hyper-partisan nature of US politics is probably behind the decoupling.

Interestingly, this dislocation seems to be a uniquely American phenomenon. The age-old relationship between economic sentiment and a government’s popularity remains almost as strong as ever in western Europe, as the charts below show.

Viewpoints

• When a former vice-president spurns his former president, we ought to sit up and notice, writes Edward Luce in the Swamp Notes newsletter. [Available for Premium subscribers]

• With his latest Al Capone act, Trump is testing the assumption that Americans don’t want a crook in the White House. (NYT)

• Moody’s chief economist says the election might come down to Pennsylvania’s economy. (Intelligencer)

• The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on the abortion pill today. Aaron Blake argues that the case will be fraught for the right. (Washington Post)