Donald Trump holds more cards than we think

America’s most recent election is best recollected in “final straw” moments. Whether Donald Trump was scorning the Muslim parents of a slain soldier, accusing a female anchor of menstrual bias, or goading fans to beat up protesters, his obituary was written weekly.

The same applies to his presidency. Last week, Mr Trump supposedly plumbed new depths by describing Haiti and Africa as “shitholes”. We forget that he launched the campaign by branding Mexicans as rapists. Now, we are told, he has really gone and done it. Except that he has done it so many times before. We are blinded by our outrage. In reality, Mr Trump’s position has rarely been stronger.

Later this month, he marks his first year with his State of the Union address. It will be tempting to see it as another way station on Mr Trump’s road to oblivion. No president has finished his first year with such low approval ratings. Come to think of it, none had such poor numbers after three months, six months, at Thanksgiving and so on. Mr Trump just keeps scraping new lows.

In reality, though, his numbers have not moved. Mr Trump lost about 10 points within his first month in office. His ratings have been hovering at between 35 and 40 per cent ever since. Which of these stories tells us more? The historic lows or the fact that Mr Trump has lost little support in the past 11 months?

We should pay equal attention to the latter. Philosophers teach us to sift reality from desire — the “is/ought” distinction.

The fact that Mr Trump so deserves his comeuppance too often spills into forecasts of his demise. If we switch to the “is” lens for a moment, the picture looks troublingly different. The president now has a near total grip on the Republican party. Both wings — the “moderates”, on one side, and the pyrotechnicists, once led by the outcast Steve Bannon, on the other — have fallen into line.

A few weeks ago, disaffected Republicans, such as Bob Corker, the Tennessee senator, were vowing a brave stand against Mr Trump. The White House was “an adult day care centre”, said Mr Corker. Mr Trump could trigger “world war three”. But when it came to a vote on the $1.5tn tax bill last month, ­Republicans such as Mr Corker rallied round. Whatever growth results from the ­corporate tax cut will be Mr Trump’s to brandish. This week, Zogby Analytics gave him a 46 per cent approval rating.

In reality, the stimulus will be shortlived, skew to the wealthiest and accelerate the interest rate cycle. But polls measure how people feel now.

Last week, Mr Corker travelled with Mr Trump on Air Force One. Suddenly, they were buddies again. The same goes for all but a couple of his peers. If Mr Trump were a marsupial, the Republican party would be in his pouch. We should not expect them to act as a check on his power. People are now looking elsewhere.

The latest hopes are projected on to Mitt Romney, the former presidential nominee, who is planning a Senate run. He will speak truth to power, we are told. During the 2016 election Mr Romney called Mr Trump a “fraud” and a “phoney”. Once he has arrived in the Senate, Mr Romney will be the one who stands up and says: “Have you no shame, sir?” Someone has to say it, right? Alas, pretty much everyone has been saying it everyday — but to no effect, since Mr Trump has none. Besides, Mr Romney auditioned unsuccessfully to be Mr Trump’s secretary of state. There is no reason to suppose he will be any less of a weathervane than Mr Corker.

What about the Democrats? They have placed their chips on Robert ­Mueller, the special counsel. Mr Trump’s second year is as likely to be as badly disrupted by the Russia investigation as his first. Bigger scalps, including Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, and Donald Trump Jr, are likely. The chances are that Mr Mueller will land a damning report on Capitol Hill at about the time Democrats are likely to regain control of Congress.

But there are two wrinkles to the Trump impeachment story. First, Democrats will need a lot of Republicans to co-operate. There is little chance of that. Indeed, Republicans and the Fox News-led “conservative entertainment complex” are doing their best to discredit Mr Mueller.

Second, Mr Trump has a knack of inciting liberals to stereotype themselves. The more Democrats invest in the Trump outrage machine, the less they put into a case for governing.

Unlike winning campaign themes, which are hard to come by, outrageous Trumpisms grow on trees. America’s president has an unlimited supply of them. He ought not to be president. Yet he is. Will Democrats grasp the difference in year two?

edward.luce@ft.com