India’s election defies prediction

Communal rivalries are at the forefront of voters’ minds as India, the world’s largest democracy, goes to the polls in a month-long, five-phase parliamentary election on Thursday.

The contest pits the ruling Congress party-led coalition against the Bharatiya Janata party, the Hindu nationalist opposition, in a fight over the government’s response to terrorism and the country’s economic prosperity. But identity politics threatens to overshadow all else as secular, religious and caste-based parties try to woo supporters.

As 714m people prepare to vote, the election is defying prediction. Some analysts fear the two big national parties will be unable to form a ruling coalition after the count on May 16. This threatens to bring into power a weak government of diverse regional parties that will struggle to forge a response to the global economic downturn.

In Varanasi, the holiest city for Hindus, a furious contest is being fought. The BJP has fielded one of its top candidates, Murli Manohar Joshi, a former government minister and physics professor, to unseat Rajesh Mishra of the Congress party and capture the spiritual prize of India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh. Mukhtar Ansari, the Bahujan Samaj party’s candidate, meanwhile, has campaigned from a jail cell.

Party workers and election officials were on Wednesday night preparing for the contest at the constituency’s 2,477 polling stations. “Varanasi is a mini-India. People from all over the country come here,” said Swaroopam Dwivedi, a BJP activist confident of his party’s victory. “This is one of the most important seats where the national leaders are fighting. Our candidate is an intellectual but he’s also a strongman.”

At Congress headquarters, Muslim community leaders showed their support for Sonia Gandhi, the Congress president, and Manmohan Singh, the prime minister. They said there had been no communal riots in the city after the Mumbai terror attacks last year because of the Congress leadership.

“Muslims are like the eyes of the Hindus. You can’t take the eyes out [of the body],” said Brajesh Kumar Mishra, the Congress MP’s elder brother and campaign manager. “We are proud that we are going to defeat the top brass of the BJP.”