March 23 is in the books here on Wall Street. Here's the New York Minute. Now it's been a day of relative calm on the markets here in New York, and obviously, quite a lot of drama in Washington where the subject is the healthcare bill. Now if you take a look at the managed healthcare sector, obviously the one that will be most affected, you can see that it's reacted quite sharply to the news at lunchtime that the Freedom Caucus was going to be voting against, and later in the day, that there wasn't even going to be a vote tonight.
If you take a look at the broader S&P 500 you can see that, yes, there was a similar effect on the market as a whole. But let's not overstate this. This was from the beginning to close, really quite a quiet day. If the Trump trade still isn't in too much trouble, the reflation trade, which is a bigger and broader phenomenon, does seem to be moving in a slightly negative direction.
This is the 10-year breakeven for the US, beginning to climb below 2%. This is the 2-year breakeven, sharply lower thanks to the oil price. And even in Germany, you can see that inflation expectations are falling. So the reflation trade may be in slightly more trouble than the Trump trade. And that's the New York Minute.