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Could healthcare be about to play a decisive role in yet another American election? Welcome to week six of Washington DC's coronavirus lockdown, where the contours of November's presidential election are beginning to take shape.
One issue rising up the agenda is healthcare, and specifically, what should happen to the tens of millions of people who are likely to lose their jobs as a result of this crisis, and with it, their employer-linked health insurance plans.
Well, one option on the table is simply to extend the government-backed Medicare and Medicaid schemes to anyone who wants them for the duration of the coronavirus crisis, at least. This would be what the Left would call "Medicare for All," at least for the foreseeable future. This, however, would be anathema to many on the Right, who are keen to make sure the private insurance market does not get undermined.
Therefore, another option being discussed is for the government to step in to subsidise a scheme known as Cobra. This allows people who have just lost their jobs, and with it their employer-linked insurance plans, to continue accessing private health insurance plans, but at a cost. The problem with this scheme has been that it is so costly, in fact, that people have simply decided to go without insurance rather than accessing it. The government could step in to cover those costs, but of course, doing so would also be tremendously expensive, with researchers estimating that it could cost the government into the hundreds of billions of dollars.
There is a third way available. The US government could decide instead to allow anybody to enrol in a plan under the Obama-era Affordable Care Act. Now this would mean that people could get a relatively low-cost plan, but still from a private supplier. It would seem to be a compromise of sorts, but the problem is the Republicans have spent much of the last few years arguing that Obamacare, as it is commonly known, should be rolled back, not extended. Changing their minds on that could lose them a lot of their key support.
Whichever way this works out, it could be an advantage for the Democrats. Either there is a wide expansion of government-backed healthcare, which is something many on the Left have argued for for years. Or there isn't, and the Democrats can go into the next election promising to look after tens of millions of people who otherwise have been forgotten about.
