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Western Europe has just 5 per cent of the world's population, but it now dominates football. When Stefan Szymanski and I published the first edition of our book, Soccernomics in 2009 we assumed that this dominance would decline, that other regions would catch up, but it hasn't happened. Western Europe has taken 10 of the 12 podium places, meaning first, second, or third place, at the World Cup since 2006.
Now, that's partly because western Europe has the densest international network on Earth. The region's secret is what the historian Norman Davies calls its user-friendly climate. It's mild and rainy here. So the land is fertile. And so large numbers of people can live in different countries very close to each other.
Each European country thinks a little bit differently from their neighbour. And so each produces ideas that they can exchange with each other, making use of the very short distances between countries here. You saw that in the scientific revolution in the 16th and 17th centuries. And now, we see this European exchange of ideas in the Champions League.
Gegenpressing, which really means very fast counter pressing, where you press the opposition the second you lose the ball, originates in the Netherlands in the '70s. Later, the Germans take it to a new level. Jurgen Klopp and Erik ten Hag bring it from Germany to Liverpool into Ajax. And they win matches.
But within western Europe, dominance keeps shifting. Elo ratings measure football team's quality based on its results, after taking into account the strength of the opposition. So more points are given for wins against stronger teams than weaker teams. And more points lost for defeats to weaker teams than stronger teams.
In the '90s, the Elo ratings show Italian clubs dominated Europe. And more recently, Real Madrid and Barcelona helped over the last decade by the incomparable Cristiano Ronaldo and Leo Messi, won 7 of the last 10 champions leagues between them. But this season, English clubs have done best with Liverpool and Spurs reaching the Champions League final.
And it's likely that for the next few years, the English will continue to compete on level terms with the Spanish big two, now that Ronaldo has already left Madrid and Messi turns 32 in June and neither player can possibly be replaced, because there is nobody else as good.
