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It's been a grim start for China's hog farmers in the year of the pig. African swine fever has swept across the country. And it's an epidemic that will reshape meat markets across the globe.
The outbreak began in the country of Georgia in 2007 and reached China last summer. Officials say Chinese pork prices could rise more than 70 per cent this year. And the impact of that is likely to be global.
China's 1.4bn people consume five times more pork than any other country. That demand was met by a domestic herd more than 400m strong. But now, one estimate tips China's pig population will be cut by a third. And that creates an opportunity for pork exporters.
Hog futures have leapt in Chicago. And shares of meat companies have soared in Sao Paulo and New York. US pork sales to China recently notch a record high in spite of the 62 per cent tariff imposed by Beijing as part of the trade war. Europe is currently China's biggest source of imported pork. But analysts say Brazil could ultimately be the biggest beneficiary.
And the shift in supply isn't just a short-term fix. Eradicating the disease could take China up to 10 years because of poor sanitation standards and consumer demand for fresh rather than frozen meat. Live pig shipments across the country make controlling the disease that much harder.
Meanwhile, North America is mobilising to keep swine flu out. The National Pork Producers Council has even cancelled its annual world pork expo in the state of Iowa to ensure that none of its 20,000 visitors brings in the virus from abroad.