March 17 is in the books here on Wall Street. Here's the "New York Minute."
All's well that ends well. It was a scary week at one point, but it ended very calmly. This is the latest data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. American consumers remain pumped. Meanwhile, this is the latest 10-year treasury yield. There were concerns ahead of the Fed meeting that it was going to break out upwards. That hasn't happened. Similarly, if we take a look at the latest oil price, there were concerns that that was going to break below its long-term trend, thanks to the latest news from OPEC. Again, that hasn't happened. It's almost exactly on its long-term trend at this point.
The biggest fear, as we move on in the year, is definitely going to be European politics. If you take a look at the spreads of French bond yields over equivalent German bond yields, you can see there is a very big risk priced in there due to the forthcoming French presidential election. Meanwhile, if you take a look at the gap between the book multiples on European and US stocks, you can see that there is a huge discount, a political risk discount, attached to European stocks.