John Authers reports on sharp market reactions to the Fed's decision to raise rates at a steadier pace than anticipated. Bond yields and the dollar fell, stocks rallied — and gold enjoyed its best day since the Brexit referendum.
March the 15th is in the books here on Wall Street. Here's the "New York Minute." Now it turns out we didn't need to beware the Ides of March too much after all. We heard from the FOMC today. They raised rates, as expected.
But what really mattered was the future course of rates, and as you can see, when it comes to the moves in the 10-year bond yields, people were very relieved. They'd gone above 2.6%. They're now back down to 2.5%.
The reason for that you can see from the Fed funds futures market. The implicit probability of three rate hikes for the year is now back down to only a 50/50 shot. The chance of four rate hikes is now seen as very less likely. That's because the Fed didn't change its dot plot significantly. It's still saying that it's [INAUDIBLE] expectation is three rate rises for this year, not four.
Now if you take a look at the gold price, you can see it had its best day since the Brexit referendum. There is some concern there that this could be leading to inflation. Meanwhile, if you take a look at emerging markets, foreign exchange, it's very much relieved the risk of a crisis there because emerging markets don't like the strong dollar. And that's the "New York Minute."