After Theresa May's Brexit defeat what happens next?
FT political editor George Parker looks at the options the government has in the wake of Tuesday night's parliamentary 'meaningful vote' defeat on Brexit and ahead of a vote by MPs on the UK leaving the EU without a deal
Filmed by Petros Gioumpasis. Produced by Josh de la Mare.
Transcript
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Profoundly great regret the decision that this house has taken tonight.
So Theresa May has just suffered what some people reckon to be the fourth biggest defeat in British political history, a defeat of 149 suggests her deal, at the very best, is on life support. So the big question is, what happens next? Now, the first thing that's going to happen today is there is going to be a vote on whether no deal should be taken off the table on March the 29th. Now, that's going to be extremely difficult to manage in the Conservative Party because Theresa May has always said that Britain will leave on March the 29th. Well plainly, we're not going to and I assume that Theresa May will vote to take no deal off the table on March the 29th.
But with an office of eurosceptics and a party that in the end we would still leave without a deal if nothing can be agreed between the UK and the EU. Now if no deal is taken off the table tonight, there'll be another series of votes tomorrow night, that's Thursday, on whether to extend the Article 50 exit process. And if so, by how long. Now Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator says he envisages a very short extension to allow the UK time to work out what on earth it is it wants to do.
Now at the same time, Theresa May is somehow got to keep the show on the road with both wings of her party tearing in different directions and her trying to hold the line. After Theresa May lost the votes, she said the House of Commons now face some unenviable choices.
Regrets have been taken out your hands Prime Minister.
Now some of the choices could be a second referendum. I don't think that's very likely to fly at the moment. Possibly another general election. People are talking about that as well. Either of those could end up with Brexit being lost. But I think the first thing that will happen is that people across the House of Commons, in agreeing to the Labour Party, pro-european conservatives are going to start exploring totally different ways of delivering Brexit. Possibly the so-called Norway option, Norway plus, including single market, and customs union membership. Now I think it's possible that could command a majority across the House of Commons.
The bad news for Theresa May is it would tear her Conservative Party apart. It would also mean that she would rely on Labour support to get this through the House of Commons. I think if I was in Theresa May's position, I wouldn't want to put my own political future and the future of my central policy on Brexit in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn. Now, the possibility of going down a soft Brexit route, the so-called Norway route, is one way that Theresa May can exert pressure on eurosceptics on the Democratic Unionist Party to swing in behind her deal.
Let me be clear--
I think we could see a third meaningful vote, maybe as soon as next week to try to get the deal through, maybe even a fourth one. Because she is determined that it still will get through with the support of the conservative family, as she calls it. Now it may be a fairly dysfunctional family as we've seen vividly this week, but nevertheless, that seems to be the goal she set herself. And I wouldn't put it past her, despite everything, somehow struggling to get this deal across the line and succeeding.