You can enable subtitles (captions) in the video player
I've just been speaking to Bill Emmott at the FT weekend Oxford literary festival, where we've been discussing the publication of his book, The Fate of the West, which is coming out at the end of this month. Bill, given that a lot of people are feeling extremely gloomy about the fate of the west and the values that it represents, you're actually quite optimistic. Why is that?
Well I'm optimistic because I think that, although we are in one hell of a crisis, let's not pretend that we're not, we've been in these sorts of crises before. And I think that we've got a certain evolutionary adaptational power that comes through the basic openness of our societies, through our ability to take in new ideas, new people, new situations and adapt to them. We can throw that away if we close borders, closed minds, which is what Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen are advocating. But as long as we stay open and understand that that openness requires a balance between new things, the shock of the new and social trust, defending the weaker and the vulnerable in our societies, building equality, giving equal citizenship and rights before the law. That balance between openness and equality is what I think we've essentially lost and we need to rebuild.
You were telling me earlier that you had the opportunity to rewrite bits of the book after the election of President Trump. How, if you were rewriting after a president Le Pen is elected in France, do you think that would affect your outlook and indeed your optimism?
I think that if President Le Pen comes true in France-- by the way as unfortunately predicted in the film I was involved in called, The Great European Disaster Movie. If it did, then things would change substantially. The European Union would be in serious crisis. Most likely it would be dead, probably in the same way that the League of Nations died in the 1930s, where the buildings still exist, people went in and out into their work, but they were irrelevant in the future. And I think Le Pen would destroy one of the basic parts of openness and the rule of law and international relations in the post-war world. So we'd have to rebuild it again. The fight would be on just as it is with Donald Trump. I would still be wanting to fight through the book and through the ideas that we stand for. But it would become even more serious than it is today.
Do you think that the Donald Trump and his administration pose more of a threat to global trade or to global peace?
I think that Donald Trump mainly poses a threat to global trade. His unpredictability and frankly ignorance in many ways and incoherence do pose some threat to peace, that he could do something suddenly. But I have faith in the American military and the diplomatic system in America that they would restrain him. Trade, I think that his ideas are so completely wrong, and yet he has the power to implement them by taking actions under section 301 of the Trade Act, punishing other countries even without a congressional vote. That is going to be irresistibly tempting for him to do it.
On that note, thank you very much, Bill Emmott.
