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China's economic growth slowed to its lowest level in nearly 30 years in the second quarter of this year. Donald Trump claims that this shows his trade war policies are hurting Beijing, but in reality the situation is far more complicated. China's gross domestic product slowed down to 6.2 per cent in the second quarter, down from 6.6 per cent in all of last year is not primarily the result of the trade war. Of course, the tit-for-tat tariffs have hit trade. China's exports to the US fell 7.8 per cent in June. And US exports to China slumped 31 per cent. But such numbers, although stark, have little impact on the broader Chinese economy. In truth net exports contribute less than 1 per cent of China's total GDP.
China's slowdown has been created overwhelmingly by domestic drivers that have little to do with US policy. The main drags on Chinese dynamism come from weakening investment in infrastructure, slowing industrial output, and a decline in the construction of new houses. All of these weaknesses derive from domestic sources rather than from the trade war. And, in any case, China remains by far the world's most vibrant economy. Even growing at its lowest level in 30 years it is still on track this year to add more than $1.4tn US dollars in value. That, for context, is bigger than the entire Australian economy.
