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Spring has sprung, and sterling is flying high. Are these the sunlit uplands we were promised? The pound's ascent against the dollar is certainly eye-catching. It's the best performing major currency in the world against the buck so far this year, with a gain of 6%. At over $1.43, it's at its strongest level since the vote to leave the EU, when it tumbled from $1.50.
The big support here is that investors reckon, rightly or wrongly, that the UK is heading for a soft rather than hard Brexit, with some form of safeguards for trade. Added to that, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates again, perhaps as soon as next month. Fresh data on the UK jobs market have confirmed that wages are now rising faster than the rate of inflation for the first time in over a year, bolstering the case for a rate rise from what increasingly appears to be a hawkish central bank.
But there's a "but." As the IMF points out, the UK has one of Europe's slowest growing economies. If you check out the pound against the euro, still a major trading partner currency, sterling is much less impressive and nowhere close to recovering its post-referendum losses.
The secret sauce? Donald's dollar. Despite the consistent run of upbeat economic data and other markets moving in its favour, the dollar cannot catch a break, particularly while President Trump somewhat clumsily makes the case for a weak buck to redress the US trade balance. It looks like sterling's gains are likely to remain uneven.