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Sep 11: Goldman's Hatzius on economists
Jan Hatzius, chief US economist for Goldman Sachs, points to humility and being "realistic in one's ability to predict the future...as an important part" of his job. Hatzius says "the biggest problems have been seen by people who rely on more mechanical models," including "large scale econometric models of the business cycle, because it's harder to adjust those types of forecasting models for judgment." "More eclectic forecasters have had perhaps a somewhat easier time... using a judicious mix of estimating models, looking at numbers and relying, at least to some extent, on more anecdotal indicators that are a little harder to... download in a time series form."