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The era of Angela Merkel, German chancellor and the most powerful politician in Europe, is drawing to a close. She will stand down as chancellor at the end of her fourth term in 2021, and probably much sooner. This month, Mrs Merkel quits as head of her centre-right party, the Christian Democratic Union. 1,001 delegates, meeting in the city of Hamburg, will choose a new leader. And this next party boss is very likely to succeed her as chancellor.
The Christian Democrats have ruled Germany for 49 out of the last 69 years. But German politics is fragmented, and their support has hit historic lows, as more conservative Germans switch to the right-wing Eurosceptic party alternative for Germany. With Mrs Merkel on the way out, the CDU must decide whether to stick to the centre ground, protective of the welfare state, liberal on immigration, pro-European, or head in a more conservative direction.
There are two main candidates vying to be party leader. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, known as AKK, is probably the frontrunner and is regarded as Mrs Merkel's preferred successor. She is the General Secretary of the party, so knows the machine and its members. She was regional premier of Saarland, so has executive experience. She's from the left-leaning social wing of the party and was a strong backer of the minimum wage, tax increases, and the phase out of nuclear power. She's tried to dismiss the notion she's a mini Merkel, but is most likely to continue her big tent politics.
AKK's main rival is Friedrich Merz. He's a former MP who led the CDU group in Parliament, when in opposition in the early 2000s. Before he fell out with Mrs Merkel, he left frontline politics and made a fortune in business. His return has electrified the party. He is a pro-business conservative and a longtime critic of Mrs Merkel's welcoming approach to immigration.
Mr Merz would steer the party back to the right. But he's also a convinced European, who says Germany should have been more open to French ideas for a stronger eurozone.
A third contender, Jens Spahn, the health minister, was once considered the torch bearer of the CDU's conservative and Eurosceptic wing. But he was quickly eclipsed by the return of Mr Merz.
The CDU's choice of leader will set the course of German politics for years to come. If Mr Merz wins, it is hard to see how Mrs Merkel can cling on as chancellor for much longer. And that would put the fate of the grand coalition in the balance. The Social Democrats, whose popularity has been depleted by years of coalition government, would pull out if Mr Merz took charge. Germany, Europe's political and economic powerhouse, could be heading for early elections and a new period of upheaval.
