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In many respects, Brexit is the first test of the new global order. And it could prove the acid test of whether a way can be found to broaden the benefits of openness while enhancing democratic accountability. Brexit can lead to new forms of international co-operation and crossborder commerce built on a better balance of local and supranational authorities. In these respects, Brexit could affect both the short and long term global outlooks.
Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, has just finished a speech here at the Barbican for the Financial Times. In it, he talked a lot about the global economy. On one level, he was pretty optimistic. He'd looked at the worst data we're seeing all over the world and said he didn't think this was a slide into recession, partly because there's been a policy response. Central banks are not going to raise interest rates as fast as they were otherwise going to do.
He also didn't really see the risks, at the moment, of a new financial crisis. He didn't think that companies or people were borrowing far too much, which is normally what happens before things go horribly wrong in the financial sector. But that was the good news.
The bad news was when it comes to attitudes towards globalisation, he saw quite a backlash, often for legitimate and justifiable terms.
With fundamental uncertainty about future market access, UK investment hasn't grown since the referendum was called. And it's dramatically underperformed both history and its peers.
Similarly, a prolongation of global trade uncertainty could undermine the global expansion. And that impact would be magnified if financial markets moved such a possibility from their tail risk towards their central scenarios.
And he thought this - if it turns into trade wars, trade tensions could be the end of the global upswing as we know it. And unfortunately, Britain is the canary in the coal mine, he said, because we're testing this right now with Brexit. With only 45 days to go, no agreement in sight. He hoped there would be an agreement, but if there wasn't, he said this could end pretty badly. And that was the sobering message he gave the audience here at the Barbican.