Brexit - eyes down for a game of history bingo
The FT's chief foreign affairs commentator Gideon Rachman looks at how the UK-EU split has sparked a range of bewildering historical analogies - from the Suez crisis to the English Civil War, the 'finest hour' to the Treaty of Le Goulet
Filmed by Petros Gioumpasis; produced and edited by Joe Sinclair
Transcript
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I feel the hand of history upon our shoulder in respect to this.
That was Tony Blair when negotiating Northern Ireland's Good Friday Agreement. Many British politicians feel the same way now in the midst of Brexit negotiations. But which bit of history?
As they struggle to define the epoch-making nature of Brexit, people have come up with an array of historical analogies drawn from Britain's past. It's all beginning to feel a bit like a game of Brexit bingo, in which participants shout out episodes from history that supposedly parallel today's event. In chronological order, 1956, the Suez crisis.
Those who think Brexit's going to end up in national humiliation like to compare it to the Suez cisis of 1956. Back then, Britain staged a military intervention in Egypt, only to be forced to back down by the US. It was a humbling lesson about diminished power, and Jo Johnson, who recently resigned from the May government, called Brexit a failure of British statecraft unseen since the Suez crisis.
1940, the Finest Hour. Those who demand that Britain should reject the Brexit deal and shouldn't fear isolation in Europe often seek inspiration by looking back to 1940, the year of the Dunkirk evacuation, the Blitz, and Churchill's Finest Hour speech. One recent column in The Daily Telegraph urged, for Brexit to work, we need Dunkirk spirit. However, most British people seem unconvinced by the implied analogy between the EU and Nazi Germany.
1846, the Repeal of the Corn Laws. This classic political battle over free trade split the Conservative party down the middle for a generation and redefined the battle lines in British politics. And many believe that Brexit will end up doing the same thing.
1642 to 1651, the Civil War. This analogy is not often discussed, perhaps because it's too bleak. But it's my personal favourite, because then as now, the central issue was parliamentary sovereignty. And the statue of Oliver Cromwell, the champion of parliament, still stands outside the House of Commons.
The issue split the country into warring camps, and the conflict took almost a decade to resolve, which is not implausible with Brexit. And in 1660, Britain restored the monarchy, which might be the equivalent of rejoining the EU.
1532, the English Reformation. Britain is now breaking with Brussels, and in 1532 England broke with Rome when Henry VIII decided to quit the Roman Catholic church. The process was bitter, prolonged, and divided the country, but in the end, it did happen.
1200, the Treaty of Le Goulet. The pro-Brexit MP Jacob Rees-Mogg has come up with the most obscure analogy. He's described Theresa May's Brexit deal as the greatest vassalage since King John paid homage to Philip II at Le Goulet, a reference to a treaty in which the King of England made territorial and financial concessions to France.
Do any of these historical analogies really help to elucidate what's going on with Brexit? Perhaps not, but they certainly identify some recurrent patterns in history - in particular, Britain's semi-detached relationship with the rest of the European continent, and the central role of parliamentary sovereignty in English political history. Or, as Karl Marx might have put it, history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second time as bingo.
