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India's coronavirus cases have hit three million with no peak in sight. The country of 1.4 billion people is adding tens of thousands of new cases daily, as the virus spreads from the megacities to the rest of the country.
India has the third highest total of Covid-19 cases, behind the United States and Brazil. However, it is on track to outpace them both and is already number one in terms of new infections. Following a pattern seen in other countries, coronavirus cases in India emerged in the major metros.
Cases kept surging in Delhi, Mumbai, and Ahmedabad, even after the government of Narendra Modi imposed one of the world's strictest lockdowns. What followed was a mass exodus of migrant workers. Crucially, they brought the virus home with them.
India's fatality rate is 1.9 per cent compared to 3.1 per cent in the United States. Officials in New Delhi say that that is proof that they have handled the coronavirus outbreak successfully. However, the low rate may be a result of the country's young population or previous immunity from other diseases. Experts also warn that the country could be underreporting its deaths and that the ratio could change.
The coronavirus pandemic hit as the economy was already faltering. Growth rates of eight per cent seen at the beginning of the century are now in the past, with India set to see its biggest economic contraction on record. Gross domestic product is expected to shrink more than five per cent.
The initial hit of Covid-19 on the economy was already worse than in other countries. But even more worrying is the rate of recovery. The bounce back of Asia's third largest economy is slower than its peers, with industries from cars to jewellery struggling to recover.
A collapse in domestic demand has worsened the outlook for economic growth. And an already weak banking sector is facing a wave of non-performing loans. That, in turn, will make the banks more risk averse, putting the brakes on a nascent recovery.
What's more, India's growing middle class has been set back by the pandemic, with millions losing their job and millions more taking pay cuts. The World Bank has warned that the pandemic risks reversing years of economic gain in India and that it can push millions of Indians back into poverty.
