John Authers reports on a first quarter in which stock markets made great headway, while bonds were stable – and many assumptions that followed the election of Donald Trump in November last year began to be questioned.
March 31-- and with it, the first quarter of 2017-- are in the books. Here's the New York minute. We've had a relatively calm end to what was, at times, a quite dramatic quarter, but we ended up roughly where we started. If you take a look at the 10-year Treasury bond yields, it looked at one point as though they might break out, but in the end they have been remarkably stable throughout this quarter. They're staying just near to 2.4%.
Meanwhile, technology continues to lead everybody else, as you can see if you compare the information technology index to the rest of the S&P 500. It has been-- it's now at its highest share of the S&P since 2001, immediately after the great dotcom bubble.
If you want to see one big reversal of the Trump trade, well, the rest of the world has caught up with the US to a fair extent in the last few weeks. But also look at how Mexico has done, compared to Russia. That was, you could say, the inverse Trump trade. Immediately after the election, everybody bought Russia and sold Mexico. In the last few months, it's been the other way around. And that's the New York Minute.