| Good morning. Massive geek that I am, I am rather sad this morning that the UK’s attempt to launch the first commercial satellites from western Europe has ended in failure because of an anomaly. Has our newsletter’s makeover gone better? Let us know your thoughts on our shiny new relaunch by replying to this email. On a happy note, there are signs of progress over the Northern Ireland protocol and the divisions that have disfigured EU-UK relations. Some thoughts on the political price Sunak might pay for that and why it isn’t as big as it might look, below. London and Brussels have made a significant step towards reaching a deal to resolve lingering disputes over the Northern Ireland protocol. Here’s our story: After months of deadlock and acrimony, the UK and EU issued a joint statement proclaiming a tentative deal that would give Brussels access to the UK’s IT systems for trade across the Irish Sea. Now, I think it is unlikely that any deal between the UK and EU will mean a return to devolved government in Northern Ireland, because the DUP have backed themselves into a corner rhetorically, and because a return to power-sharing at Stormont would mean facilitating the first Sinn Féin first minister. But settling the disputes between the UK government and the EU is a huge positive in and of itself for obvious reasons. (Sign up to Britain After Brexit and the newly relaunched Europe Express for more on this — premium subscription required.) At the same time, it comes with a cost to Rishi Sunak. It is hard to avoid the fact that any progress will also be painted as a betrayal by his internal critics. That said, if Sunak were to feed 4,000 people with seven loaves and some small fish, I’m sure that at least one of his internal critics would complain that he hadn’t given them anything to drink with it. Nonetheless, one of the subplots of this political year is that Sunak’s right flank is certain to become more vocal and critical, particularly over the next few months. At some point between now and April, the UK is likely to reach an agreement over the Northern Ireland protocol, which will cause some complaint on the right of the Conservative party. And on March 15, Jeremy Hunt will deliver his Budget. We have a pretty good idea of what this budget’s broad outline will be: some sensible measures to use the benefit system and the state pension to shield households from some of the economic pressures facing the UK, and some stealthy tax rises. We should also expect some increases in state spending to meet whatever fresh commitments the government ends up making to bring an end to the various strikes occurring across the public realm, and a lot of painful cuts after the next election. Almost all of that will annoy Conservatives. How worried should Sunak be? Not that worried. Frankly because these people will criticise him no matter what, and because Sunak did not need them to become leader, nor to keep him in that post. They can embarrass him and drag down his approval ratings, but they can’t, on their own, remove him as leader. They can hobble his domestic agenda, but that comes pre-hobbled. Because the government has also thrown a lot of things into the “for later” pile even if they don’t require a parliamentary vote, Sunak’s actual policy programme is pretty light. (Graham Mather, president of the Infrastructure Forum, has a good column about one policy that looks to be a casualty of that approach: the plan to reshape rail services in England.) That he has also decided to avoid passing controversial and significant measures with opposition votes also reduces the amount he can do. So while we should expect a lot of noise in March and April, I wouldn’t take any of it all that seriously: it won’t make Sunak’s government any weaker than it is. Only if the prime minister’s supporters in the parliamentary party start to shift then will he have something to worry about. Shameless self-promotion My column this week is on why everyone needs to understand the basics of coding. I have finally got around to watching the new Star Wars spin-off Andor. It’s as good as everyone says. Good piece on the programme and appointment TV more generally by Esther Bintliff here. Attack aid for Ukraine | Britain is assessing the merits of supplying Ukraine with tanks to help the country’s armed forces fight Russia’s invasion, according to two defence sources familiar with the situation. On the table | Health secretary Steve Barclay is examining trade union proposals to backdate the coming year’s NHS pay rise to January 2023, and for a lump-sum payment to staff, in a new government effort to end a wave of strikes. Labour donor revealed | A recruitment mogul called Peter Hearn has emerged as one of the UK opposition Labour party’s most generous donors, linked to more than £1mn of donations over the past decade, most recently through a corporate vehicle with no website. Companies warn any added energy costs will hit customers | The British government is slashing the support it gives companies with their energy bills, but extending it for another year from April at a cost of £5.5bn, ministers announced yesterday. Former minister quits ‘self-obsessed Tories’ | Claire Perry O’Neill, a former Conservative minister in Theresa May’s cabinet, has left the party and lavished praise on Keir Starmer, the Times reports.
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