Growing demand for fossil fuels is a wake-up call

Our climate is in crisis yet the world’s thirst for fossil fuels, a prime cause of the predicament, shows no signs of slackening. Experts from the International Energy Agency last week presented a sobering assessment of the state of play. The world’s reliance on fossil fuels, it warned, remains “stubbornly high”. Carbon emissions are set to rise up until 2040, even if governments manage to meet their environmental targets. Its US counterpart, the Energy Information Agency, paints a similar picture. Global natural gas consumption, it predicts, will jump 40 per cent by 2050.

Projections so far into the future require a degree of scepticism, but the underlying trend is clear. Despite political leaders’ stated intentions to curb greenhouse gas emissions, our continued use of sources such as oil and gas means we risk failing at the great challenge that climate change presents. The evidence in favour of more decisive action is mounting. The IEA’s assessment comes against a backdrop of wildfires in Australia, and flooding in Venice and northern England. It is difficult to pin single events on higher concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere but climate scientists are clear that more extreme weather events are linked to emissions caused by humans. If governments are serious about the targets they have set then they need to take action to cut fossil fuel demand.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to keeping global warming to below 2C and ideally 1.5C. Climate scientists warn that even with a target of 2C, global emissions should already be falling each year. Last year they rose by about 2 per cent. Governments have encouraged the supply of green energy — through subsidies for renewables as well as support to encourage the take-up of electric vehicles, but progress is not yet fast enough.

There are some signs that the need for urgency is beginning to dawn. The European Investment Bank last week became the first large multilateral lender to agree to phase out lending for all traditional fossil fuel projects, including mainstream gas-fired power plants, by the end of 2021. Since 2013, the bank has lent €13.4bn to fossil fuel infrastructure, of which more than €9bn went to gas and distribution infrastructure. It also backed the Trans Adriatic Pipeline, which will bring Caspian gas to Europe.

The impact of the decision is modest in the wider context; but it is significant. Incoming European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has pledged to turn the EIB into a “climate bank”. The decision defied opposition from countries including Poland, which relies heavily on coal-fired power. It argues, as do many other governments, that gas should be part of a transition to cleaner energy, a stepping stone towards a renewable future.

Today’s energy system relies heavily on fossil fuels. This will not change imminently but if gas wants to retain a role it needs to clean up its act. More needs to be done to encourage the adoption of carbon-capture schemes, where gas is burnt but the CO2 produced is not allowed to enter the atmosphere. Britain’s Committee on Climate Change has said the adoption of such technology will be crucial to decarbonise key sectors, including heavy industry. It could also play a role in the manufacture of hydrogen to replace natural gas to heat buildings. Neither carbon capture nor hydrogen are currently cost competitive.

Tackling the climate crisis will require governments to be much more ambitious in their plans to curb the use of fossil fuels. For some countries it will be easier to do than for others but there is no time to start like the present.

Letter in response to this editorial:

Scaremongering keeps nuclear out of the mix / From Phillip Hawley, La Jolla, CA, US