HUAINAN, CHINA - JUNE 14: Chinese street vendors and customers gather at a local market outside a state owned Coal fired power plant near the site of a large floating solar farm project under construction by the Sungrow Power Supply Company on a lake caused by a collapsed and flooded coal mine on June 14, 2017 in Huainan, Anhui province, China. The floating solar field, billed as the largest in the world, is built on a part of the collapsed Panji No.1 coal mine that flooded over a decade ago due to over-mining, a common occurence in deep-well mining in China's coal heartland. When finished, the solar farm will be made up of more than 166,000 solar panels which convert sunlight to energy, and the site could potentially produce enough energy to power a city in Anhui province, regarded as one of the country's coal centers. Local officials say they are planning more projects like it, marking a significant shift in an area where long-term intensive coal mining has led to large areas of subsidence and environmental degradation. However, the energy transition has its challenges, primarily competitive pressure from the deeply-established coal industry that has at times led to delays in connecting solar projects to the state grid. Chinaâs government says it will spend over US $360 billion on clean energy projects by 2020 to help shift the country away from a dependence on fossil fuels, and earlier this year, Beijing canceled plans to build more than 100 coal-fired plants in a bid to ease overcapacity and limit carbon emissions. Already, China is the leading producer of solar energy, but it also remains the planetâs top emitter of greenhouse gases and accounts for about half of the worldâs total coal consumption. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
Chinese city dwellers can live in the shadow of coal power plants © Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
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In the energy business, perceptions of change often run ahead of reality. The 19th century is widely thought of as the Age of Coal. However, as environmental scientist Vaclav Smil points out, the dominant sources of total fuel use worldwide were wood, charcoal and straw.

On that basis, it was the 20th century that was the true Age of Coal. The lesson, Mr Smil told a conference of energy experts and policymakers in 2013, is that “these energy transitions to higher quality fuels . . . take a very, very long time”.

The survival of the global coal industry into the 21st century proves his point.

World coal use rose in 2017 for the first time in three years, and may well rise again in 2018. Prices for thermal coal used for power generation have risen strongly in recent months, driven by high temperatures in China and other Asian countries that have increased demand for air-conditioning and hence for electricity.

While coal use for power appears to have peaked in developed countries, there is still growth in many emerging economies, particularly in south-east Asia, for the most carbon-intensive fuel available.

The outlook for China, which accounts for a little under half the world’s coal demand, is uncertain: the government is making efforts to curb emissions from coal, but power generators are still seeking to build new plants.

Coal remains an appealing solution for countries that need to meet fast-rising demand for electricity, are seeking to minimise costs, and are not setting reductions in greenhouse gas emissions as the prime objective of energy policy.

For many emerging economies, the big concern about coal is not carbon dioxide but the nitrogen and sulphur oxides that cause local pollution.

Renewable energy is increasingly competitive against coal. “The costs of solar and wind power have now fallen to the point where in many parts of Asia they can compete against coal plants, without any need for additional subsidies,” says Richard Lancaster, chief executive of Hong Kong-based utility CLP Holdings, which also operates power plants in China, India and other Asian countries.

Despite the growth of renewables as a low-cost source of electricity, emerging economies are still investing in coal to ensure 24-hour supply and to support industrial development.

Vietnam, for example, plans to supply 10.7 per cent of its power demand from renewable sources excluding hydro power in 2030, up from 6.5 per cent in 2020. However, over the same period the country’s coal use is also expected to soar, as new plants are built to meet surging demand for electricity. The government plans to have 850 megawatts of solar capacity and 800MW of wind by 2020. However, there are about 15,000MW of coal-fired plants in development but not yet permitted, 8,750MW permitted, and 10,640MW under construction, according to CoalSwarm, an environmental research group.

Coal chart

Natural gas is a less carbon-intensive fossil fuel but it remains relatively expensive in Asia: cargoes of liquefied natural gas have been selling for almost $10 per million British Thermal Units, compared with a US benchmark price of just under $3 per mBTU. While there has been a shift from coal to gas for power generation in the US, the trend has gone the other way in south-east Asia. Unless gas prices fall very sharply it is hard to see that trend being reversed.

The result is that coal use globally is expected to rise slowly over the next few years, in spite of declines in the US and Europe. The International Energy Agency’s forecasts out to 2022, published at the end of last year, show projected declines in coal demand of 11m tonnes per year for China, 30m tonnes per year for European countries that are in the OECD, a club of mostly rich nations, and 37m tonnes per year for North America. Those declines are more than offset, however, by increases of 135m tonnes per year for India and 70m tonnes per year for the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), which includes Vietnam.

That forecast for India could turn out to be too high, depending on whether the government decides whether to bail out financially-distressed coal plants. But even if the rate of growth in demand for coal in India slows further, the outlook for global coal demand over the next few years is likely to be roughly flat.

The shift in global coal-fired generation of electricity from the US and Europe to more modern power stations in Asia could mean that greenhouse gas emissions from coal still fall. Many of the new plants in Asia use “high efficiency low emissions” (HELE) technologies, which can achieve significant reductions compared with the older plants in developed countries. Benjamin Sporton of the World Coal Association, which represents international producers, points out that some Asian countries are using the adoption of HELE plants as part of their strategy for meeting pledges to curb emissions under the Paris climate agreement.

The Age of Coal may be entering its twilight years. But coal, as a contributor to global energy supplies, is some way from a museum piece just yet.

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Part 6/6: The economic and investment challenge of climate change

Governments and businesses must mobilise trillions of dollars of investment to achieve shifts in energy use to cope with rising demand and curb carbon emissions.

Previous instalments, examining how new technologies and environmental concerns are transforming the balance of energy production and consumption, can be viewed by scrolling down this page.

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