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Will the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise rates in March come down to a coin toss?

Traders and investors in New York are now ascribing those 50:50 odds to the Fed’s next decision, as policymakers at the US central bank closely scrutinise economic data in their debate to tighten monetary policy.

The odds that the Fed will lift rates at its next meeting hit 50 per cent on Monday in an indication that markets believe there is an increasing likelihood the central bank will tighten policy next month, according to calculations on federal funds futures by Bloomberg.

And that is up from 40 per cent on Friday.

Separate calculations conducted by CME Group put the odds of a rate rise in March at roughly 33 per cent, up from 27 per cent on Friday.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2017. All rights reserved.

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