Next week is November – the month when, according to Jordan Kotick, noted strategist at RBC Capital Markets, “seasonal winds shift from high volatility to risk-seeking optimism into year-end”.
RBC has crunched the data across a large range of assets, some going back many decades, to calculate average monthly moves.
And at the risk of irritating those who quite rightly point out that averages can be skewed and past performance is no guarantee of future moves, here are a select few findings.
It is well known that Wall Street tends to enjoy the last few months of the year. But the best performing bourse in November is Sweden’s OMX 30 with a gain of 2.03 per cent. Worst is the Hang Seng, sporting an average 0.64 per cent loss.
In fixed income, the overall sovereign bond market also does well, with yields lower. Again it’s Sweden that leads the way, with the 10-year yield falling an average 15.9 basis points. But watch the periphery! Portugal’s 10-year yield rises 5.25 basis points.
Fundamentalists may accept that seasonal issues are relevant in commodities. Soyabeans are the star, their price rising 2.05 per cent. Brent crude sees a 1.98 per cent loss, though given how sharp falls have been of late, many may be tempted to bet this November sees a rebound in oil.
Finally major forex. What is it with those Swedes! The US dollar/Swedish krona cross is the best, up 0.86 per cent, with the buck generally firm. The Aussie dollar dips 0.26 per cent.
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