The year ahead: advice, predictions and agenda

Sign up to receive FirstFT by email here

Russia plans to expel 35 US diplomats in cyber-sanctions payback. Germans detect hand of Russia as political cyber war escalates. Boom in cyber attack insurance predicted to gather pace. The perfect weapon: How Russian cyberpower invaded the US. How Russia recruited elite hackers for its cyber war. (FT, NYT)

Forecasting the world in 2017. FT writers’ views: Article 50 triggered, Merkel re-elected, Beijing holds renminbi steady. 

New Year advice 

Where should I invest in 2017? The Trump rally, the yield curve and inflation under scrutiny.

Travel: Where to go in 2017: From Nepal to post Brexit vote Britain.

Restaurant trends: Eateries without seats — and vice versa. 

Books to read: a look ahead. Kureishi, Murakami, Roy and Smith. (BBC)

The Crisis Manager’s Cheat Sheet: North Korea, Russia and cyber attacks voted high risk. (Foreign Policy)

2017 predictions

Lex cautions on bad predictions. Business is more resilient than the typical columnist realises.

Martin Sandbu's Free Lunch cautions on erroneous predictions, before warning of low interest rates and slow growth. “The best thing about middling expectations is the possibility of a positive surprise.” (FT Premium)

Five industries under threat from technology: travel agents, manufacturers, insurers, advisers and car repair garages face strain.

Predicting the outcome of the 2016/17 Premier League season. (FT)

The World in 2017: Young people seem to be less worried by these forces of change than interested in using them to shape the future. (Economist)

Annual forecast: A return to spending and inflation. Islamic State finds refuge in Libya. Iran vs Turkey tensions escalate. (Stratfor)

Ian Bremmer. The Era of American Global Leadership Is Over. “No region feels the G-zero pressure more acutely than the Middle East.” (Eurasia Group)

Trump's first year: “Campaigns offer a surprisingly accurate preview of presidencies. A president has the unilateral authority to renegotiate a nuclear deal with Iran, to order a ban on Muslims and to direct the Justice Department to give priority to certain offences.” (New Yorker)

Monocle: From car sharing and the impact of eastern Europe, to the Toyama model of caring for the elderly.

The future of journalism: How to reach communities, getting comfortable asking for money, verification takes centre stage. (Nieman Labs)

Tech predictions: Facebook scrutiny, Apple stumbles, artificial intelligence is the next big thing. (Fortune)

The Pessimist’s Guide to 2017. (Bloomberg)

The year ahead: Accelerating economic growth, improving corporate fundamentals and modest stock gains offset by rising inflation, a stronger dollar, weak credit markets, uncertain commodity pricing and game-changing political events. (Bank of America Merrill Lynch global outlook)

European populism: The risks in national elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands. (Bloomberg)

Agenda

2017 is international year for sustainable tourism for development.

What the new year holds for science: from China’s lunar samples to insights from the Human Microbiome project. (Nature)

January

Euro cash is 15 years old.

The UK Supreme Court is expected to rule on Brexit.

Donald Trump is inaugurated as US president on January 20, once he sorts out the music.

March

Dutch parliamentary election, an important test of the surge of populism in Europe.

British prime minister’s self imposed deadline for triggering Article 50. 

April

First round of the French presidential election, and a test for the extreme rightwing National Front.

May

UK local and city mayor elections: a test for the main parties.

Iran's presidential election, with Hassan Rouhani standing again.

G7 summit in Sicily, to focus on Africa and migration.

July

G20 summit in Hamburg to stress intensifying international co-operation.

August

50 years since the creation of Asean.

Total solar eclipse. (21st)

October

Conspiracy theorists watch out. President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Collection Act of 1992 fully discloses documents.

November

100 years since the October Revolution in Russia.

December

Congress of Chinese Communist party’s Central Committee.