FT Money columnists, and special guest Mr Fox, with their predictions for the FTSE 100 in 2011.
I may get it wrong again but maybe City folk will now bank their 2010 bonuses, buy gold and commodities and let the stock market plummet. Worldwide there will still be banks hiding the full extent of their losses, continuing frauds, countries issuing false accounts and political instability and natural and cyber disasters will increase.
- 19 per cent
The semi-tame fox that visits the garden of FT Money columnist Kevin Goldstein-Jackson was offered a range of FTSE 100 percentage movements on identically sized pieces of chicken - from +15 per cent to 0 per cent, to -20 per cent. the fox sat patiently while the pieces were placed in line and listened to the competition rules. It walked along the line, stopped at 0 per cent, went to the end of the line, walked back to 0 per cent and then chose - 19 per cent to eat first.
(Note: Kevin Goldstein-JacksonI used percentage figures on the meat because it was too complicated to give the fox hundreds of choices and provide a numerical figure eg: 3,251, 5,000, 5,582 )
For 2011 the fuel will be a switch away from over-priced gilts as inflation continues to bite. I’m confident that we can see at least 10 per cent by the end of the year, but may well touch 7,000 at some point.
For 2011, recent events at the long end of the US bond market demonstrate the current risks in gilts. Inflation-proof government and corporate debt should do better than conventional fixed income stocks. For the FTSE100, its recent resilience in the face of the Eurozone crisis points to further appreciation in the coming year and a minimum level of 6475 by the end of the year.
First off i have no form with predictions. I;m usually too bearish for my own good. Now I find myself bullish about equities which will probably mean that they fall back! Regardless I stick to my view that equities overall are looking okay value and the London listed blue chips good value. I’d be looking for a 10 per cent return overall (including dividends) and I’d be looking for the FTSE to finish at about 6,200.