Washington presidential election polls

★ Strongly Democrat ★
12
of 538 electoral votes

Which candidate is leading in Washington?

Polling average based on four-way race (%)

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Oct 3, 2016 Nov 9 Nov 36.0 Trump 50.3 Clinton 36.0 Trump 50.3 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Oct 3, 2016 Nov 9 Nov 36.0 Trump 50.3 Clinton 36.0 Trump 50.3 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Oct 3, 2016 Nov 9 Nov 36.0 Trump 50.3 Clinton 36.0 Trump 50.3 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Oct 3, 2016 Nov 9 Nov 36.0 Trump 50.3 Clinton 36.0 Trump 50.3 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Oct 3, 2016 Nov 9 Nov 36.0 Trump 50.3 Clinton 36.0 Trump 50.3 Clinton

The chart above displays the two leading presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Two other candidates with significant support are Libertarian Gary Johnson, who is polling at 2.5 per cent, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, who is polling at 1.5 per cent. Read about our methodology.

Who won past presidential races in Washington?

Washington National
Year Margin of victory (pts) Margin of victory (pts)
2012 Obama
+14.9 Obama
+3.9
2008 Obama
+17.2 Obama
+7.3
2004 Kerry
+7.2 Bush (G.W.)
+2.5
2000 Gore
+5.6 Bush (G.W.)
+0.5
1996 Clinton (B.)
+12.5 Clinton (B.)
+8.5
1992 Clinton (B.)
+11.4 Clinton (B.)
+5.6
1988 Dukakis
+1.6 Bush (G.H.W.)
+7.7
1984 Reagan
+13 Reagan
+18.2
1980 Reagan
+12.3 Reagan
+9.7
1976 Ford
+3.9 Carter
+2.1
1972 Nixon
+18.3 Nixon
+23.2

Key data about Washington

Economic and demographic indicators relative to the national average (%). Darker lines indicate multiple states with similar values.

Wage growth

5.6% Washington -2.8%min 4.4%US 6.7%max

Unemployment rate

5.6% Washington 2.9%min 4.9%US 6.9%max

Poverty rate

12.2% Washington 8.2%min 13.5%US 22%max

College educated

32.3% Washington 18.7%min 29.3%US 53.4%max

Hispanic population

12.4% Washington 1.5%min 17.6%US 48%max

African-American population

4.1% Washington 0.6%min 13.3%US 48.3%max

All individual polls

Date Pollster Clinton / Trump (%) Clinton TrumpSample*
Oct 31 - Nov 2 SurveyUSA 50 / 38 50% 38%681 LV
Oct 20 - 22 Elway Poll 48 / 31 48% 31%502 LV
Oct 6 - 13 University of Washington 53 / 39 53% 39%750 LV
Sep 29 - Oct 3 KOMO, Strategies 360 47 / 31 47% 31%500 LV
Sep 25 - 26 Emerson 44 / 38 44% 38%700 LV
Aug 9 - 13 Elway Poll 43 / 24 43% 24%500 RV

* RV indicates registered voters; LV indicates likely voters

Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and checks for new polls at least once an hour as polls are added by RCP staff.

The poll tracker is based on a four-way race, which includes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Republican candidate Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In states where Stein is not on the ballot (Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota), a three-way polling average is used. In Utah, where independent candidate Evan McMullin is polling significantly, a five-way polling average is used.

The FT’s US election poll tracker switched from two-way polling averages to four-way polling averages on September 21 to better reflect the options available to voters.

A state is considered ‘solid’ if the difference in polling averages between two candidates is above 10 per cent; ‘leaning’ if it is between 10 and 5 per cent; and a ‘toss-up’ if it falls below 5 per cent.

Most states use a ‘winner-take-all’ method of electoral college vote allocation. Maine and Nebraska, however, use an alternative method called the congressional district method in which the state is divided into congressional districts and the winner of each district takes that district’s electoral vote. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded two electoral votes.

Sources: Real Clear Politics, The Green Papers, US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Produced by: Steve Bernard, Joanna S. Kao, Luke Kavanagh, Callum Locke, Claire Manibog, Caroline Nevitt, Tom Pearson, Ændrew Rininsland, and Martin Stabe.