Money managers have flagged the spectre of a trade war as their top ‘tail risk’ for the first time in more than a year, according to a closely watched survey released on Tuesday that highlights growing caution among some investors.

Three-in-10 participants surveyed this month by Bank of America Merrill Lynch said a trade war was the biggest risk to global markets, the first time it registered at the top of the list since January 2017.

The survey of 176 participants with $514bn in assets under management was taken during a month when the Trump administration triggered hefty tariffs on steel and alumnium imports.

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