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It’s fair to say that Alex will easily win our little contest if his Cardiff South (40:1) bet comes in on the Liberal Democrats. But it’s a long shot by definition. By contrast I’m sticking to a core strategy of going for unsurprising victories where the odds are better than they should be.

Harrow West, until 1997, was Tory through and through. In 1997 it was seized by Gareth Thomas, a likeable Labour MP who has served as a minister in DFID and the business department. He is looking seriously vulnerable, however, with a majority of only about 2,000. A swing of 9 per cent to the Tories and he is a goner.

Harrow – home of the eponymous public school – is not quite the upmarket enclave it used to be. The constituency has quite a few bedsits and rented properties. Yet one person who has been around the area in recent days tells me he just can’t find Labour supporters. They appear to have vaporised.

I’ve put down a bet of £20 at Ladbrokes on a Tory win which at 3:2 – if successful – will deliver me a £30 profit. The odds are good given that Paddy Power and William Hill have a Conservative victory at just over evens.

Legal disclaimer: It goes without saying that our tips are almost certain to be worthless duds. Please do not try this at home or at work unless you’re looking to give money away. There will also be no wagers on “facts” we’ve discovered through our work (such as a candidate calling a press conference to announce they will drop out).

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2017. All rights reserved.

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