Dollar bulls have dominated 2015. There is talk that dollar bears could take some succor from what is already being anticipated as “a dovish rate rise” from the Federal Reserve tonight. But in the last lap run up to the hotly-anticipated announcement, if there is an animal the world’s reserve currency most resembles, it’s Dr Doolittle’s mythical pushmi-pullyu.
The index tracking the world’s reserve currency against a range of its rivals has moved either side of the flatline, but not by much. At pixel time, it’s up 0.1 per cent at 98.268, having been down to 98.011 earlier, writes Michael Hunter.
Either way, the moves leave it trading around a five-session high, which in turn put it within reach of its highest reading of the year – 100.51- which it reached earlier in the month.
The pattern has been similar for major crosses. The euro was trading as high as $1.0957 earlier, but has since slipped back to $1.0921, down 0.1 per cent. The pound is currently down 0.2 per cent at $1.5006, having been as high as $1.5058, which was a rise of 0.2 per cent.
The dollar’s immediate fate is likely to be influenced by the “dot plot”, which tracks the expectations of rises held by members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which will offer refreshed insight into the potential pace and extent of the tightening cycle.
Marc Ostwald at ADM Investor Services said:
Forecasters are expecting the dot-plot to see a substantial lowering of the implied rate trajectory, making this initial move away from extreme monetary accommodation a so-called ‘dovish’ rate hike,” said Marc Ostwald at ADM Investor Services.
The risk is that the dot-plot will be less dovish than many market participants are expecting [since] it would be unwise to forfeit its room for manoeuvre should incoming data, above all wages and inflation, prove to be stronger than expected.
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