Rouble outperforms EM currency peers
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Russia’s rouble is having a good day.
The dollar is down 1.4 per cent against the Russian currency this morning, making the rouble the best performing emerging market currency today.
The rouble often rises in line with oil prices, with Brent crude up almost 1 per cent on Monday.
The move higher in the rouble comes in spite of measures taken by the Russian central bank to try and weaken the currency. The finance ministry said earlier this month it would spend Rbs6.3bn a day on forex transactions between February 7 and March 6.
Neil Mellor, a forex analyst at BNY Mellon, said that while the rouble was still largely an oil trade, doubts over how far the oil price could rise further and an environment of US dollar strength presented “growing risks” for betting the Russian currency would move higher.
Paul McNamara, investment director at GAM, said: “The economic outlook for Russia is very solid – oil price higher than assumed in all economic plans, economic recovery coming through strongly and a fan in the White House offering the prospect of sanctions being lifted soon.
“The only issue is that this looks pretty thoroughly priced in, with the position consistently showing as a popular long among investors and the rates market pricing a lot more Central Bank of Russia doveishness than looks realistic.”
Russia’s currency still remains below a 19-month peak of Rbs56.50 hit in the middle of February. It hit a high of Rbs57.60 today.
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