Emerging shock to system

Greece and Dubai show that instability remains and tail risk is back, writes Gillian Tett
The announcement by Dubai World, the government’s flagship holding company, that it wants to restructure its debt raised fears of a default. But how did the booming emirate get into this position?
Tremors from the shock request by Dubai’s government-owned holding company for a debt standstill spread through global equity markets, triggering a sell-off in Asia and heavy losses on Wall Street
With Dubai raising the possibility that one of its leading entities may default, attention is now focusing on just how far the UAE’s capital is willing to go to bail out the troubled emirate
A lack of information about Dubai’s flagship government-owned holding company, made worse by a religious holiday in the Middle East, prompted indiscriminate selling of stocks linked to the region

Greece and Dubai show that instability remains and tail risk is back, writes Gillian Tett
The government’s decision to postpone debt repayments could make the emirate’s rivals more attractive, persuading international companies to decamp to Doha or Abu Dhabi, writes Jim Krane

The decision to ask Dubai World bond-
holders to extend maturities from December to May 2010 was a bombshell and the emirate will pay the price, writes Roula Khalaf
With the grenade Dubai has just lobbed into the capital markets by calling for a six-month creditor standstill for its flagship Dubai World holding company, its action looks like either a serious misjudgment or, more likely, a breathtaking cock-up

Executives have lost their jobs amid pressure for a return to a more conservative style, says Simeon Kerr

Neither Argentina’s default in 2001 nor Lehman’s collapse came out of the blue, yet both caused shockwaves. Now it may be Dubai’s turn
The Dubai World empire, and Nakheel in particular, was proving to be the emirate’s biggest headache which might need some tough love if the city-state sought to dig itself out of a debt hole and real estate crash
Much of the optimism surrounding Dubai in recent months had rested on the assumption that it was embarking on a serious restructuring of its businesses and would meet its debt obligations
Investors had traditionally accepted implicit guarantees that Gulf governments would not allow a related entity to default on its debt
As the effects of the economic crisis rattle Dubai’s foundations, the hands-on style of leadership Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum is being examined like never before
Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, chairman of Dubai’s supreme fiscal committee
The collapse of the Nakheel bond and Dubai World’s shock call for a six-month debt ‘standstill’ has seen the world’s stock markets drop as investors dump anything with potential exposure to the region
Credit Suisse, in a research note, said European banks could face a 5 per cent increase in bad loan provisions in 2010, or about €5bn after tax, if they lost 50 per cent on their estimated exposure to Dubai
Real estate investors are preparing for a sale of prime properties from London to New York should Dubai decide to raise cash by selling liquid assets held by its investment companies
One investor in the Nakheel sukuk said ‘this is mostly a Dubai issue, not a sukuk issue ... (but) a default would obviously be negative for the sukuk market’
Request by indebted government holding company raises spectre of default in Middle East trading hub
Alarm at news that Dubai World’s property arm was restructuring a bond due in December amid fears about implications of default
Government faces pressure to clarify whether rescheduling signals a change in policy and whether sukuk restructuruing will be voluntary
Moody’s downgrades Dubai government-related issuers’ ratings
Dubai World, a conglomerate owned by the emirate’s government, is asking its creditors for a six-month ‘standstill’ on its obligations
Dubai has removed the high-profile governor of the Dubai International Financial Center as a political power struggle caused by the emirate’s financial troubles continues to build