Short View: Dollar carry trade

Leverage is down, but a lack of leverage in markets does not mean there will be a lack of volatility, writes Aline van Duyn
The sharp fall in the US dollar is giving ammunition to the critics of the Obama administration and fuelling broader concerns about the erosion of America’s reserve currency status
Barack Obama has urged China to strengthen its currency as tensions over exchange rates and trade broke through a carefully-orchestrated show of co-operation between Washington and Beijing
In rare public comments on the dollar, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said the US central bank was monitoring currency markets ‘closely’ and will conduct policy in a way that will ‘help ensure that the dollar is strong’
Where’s the beef? That appeared to be the market’s initial response to Ben Bernanke’s statement that the Federal Reserve was monitoring the dollar and would conduct policy in a way that would help ensure it is strong
Global Markets Overview: The price of gold hit another record as the dollar resumed its downward trend, helping a number of stock markets to claim fresh highs for 2009
Speculation is mounting about whether and when the Chinese currency will be allowed to strengthen
The spotlight has been thrown on the dollar in the past week as it fell to a 14-month low against a basket of currencies and analysts have raised concerns about the potential erosion of America’s reserve currency status. Use our graphic to view the dollar within the framework of the current major trends in the currencies market

Leverage is down, but a lack of leverage in markets does not mean there will be a lack of volatility, writes Aline van Duyn
Vast carry trade is raising fears of a sharp reversal for stocks, writes Gregory Meyer
European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet is right to focus on exchange rate volatility, not absolute strength, as the main concern
The dollar: Despite prevailing ‘declinism’, there is no evidence of a rout – though recent lows have highlighted fundamental questions about the US currency’s long-term prospects

Recent figures have proved that the dollar’s fall is a symptom of success, not of failure. All the same, the dollar-based global monetary system is defective. It would be good to start building alternative arrangements, writes Martin Wolf
America’s leaders should commit now and in detail to implement deficit reduction once the economy has strengthened. Vague promises will not work, says Roger Altman
Imagine a world with a small current account deficit in the US, a somewhat larger deficit in the eurozone and a not too excessive Asian surplus. In the long run, such a world would require significant reform of the monetary system. But in the short term, a fall in the dollar would help, writes Wolfgang Münchau