Diary commentary from FT reporters; data and company announcements, unless otherwise stated, from Thomson Reuters. Company announcements are of information publicly available before last week

NOVEMBER 16

● Louis Gallois, chief executive of EADS, is used to being asked about the future, but when he announces third-quarter results for Europe’s aerospace and defence group he will not get away with claiming he has no crystal ball, writes Peggy Hollinger.

The market is expecting a clear statement on the outlook for orders at Airbus, the aircraft maker, and a better sense of whether the group will have to slow its record rates of production. In Toulouse, Airbus still seems to be struggling to overcome problems in the production of the superjumbo A380, so many analysts are expecting yet another hit to profits from exceptional charges.

There is the important question of who will pay for the problems of the A400m, the Airbus military transport aircraft that has been a subject of dispute not just between EADS and its government clients, but also between the customers themselves. A rapid update on where the negotiations are would be welcomed by investors – especially after South Africa cancelled its order last week.

In fact, Mr Gallois may have more to say about the weakness of the dollar, which is challenging a group whose cost base is largely in euros. The EADS chief has in the past voiced some pretty severe warnings to his founding member states – France, Germany, Spain and the UK – about the consequences of too weak a dollar. Fears over exchange rates have helped to depress EADS shares in recent weeks, from their peak in mid September of €16.4.

● Sales at Robert Wiseman Dairies rose after it snapped up an important contract when Dairy Farmers of Britain fell into receivership in June, writes Hannah Kuchler.

In a trading update last month, Robert Wiseman reported that overall interim milk sales volumes had grown by more than 10 per cent, mainly because of its new deal to supply milk to the Co-operative Group.

All eyes will be on whether the group’s margins have also grown as it reports half-year results.

Because it sells only milk, the need to keep the shelves stocked with the fresh product means it is more vulnerable to price fluctuations than its cheese-making competitors. The rising cost of HDPE, which is used to make plastic milk bottles, should also squeeze margins.

Analysts are expecting interim pre-tax profits to be between £16.3m and £19.4m, up from £13.3m last year.

● General Motors releases its first financial results since its restructuring under US bankruptcy law last summer, writes Bernard Simon.

The world’s second biggest carmaker is now a private company owned by the US and Canadian governments, the United Auto Workers union and a group of former bondholders. Nonetheless, it has agreed to continue disclosure of its financial performance.

Politicians want to know when GM will be able to repay the $6.7bn it owes the US Treasury. It has received more than $50bn in government loans over the past year, but the bulk of that debt was converted into equity as part of the restructuring.

Investors will be watching the results for pointers on whether GM is on the road to sustained profitability, now that it has shed unwanted plants and dealers, and lowered its labour costs.

Its third-quarter performance was bolstered by “cash-for-clunkers” incentives in the US and Europe, and by fast-growing sales in China. Management hopes the company will be able to go public again by the second half of 2010. Much will depend on a further recovery in US car sales and GM’s ability to maintain, if not improve, its market share.

Earnings
EADS Q3 €0.22 (€0.84)
Lowe’s Q3 $0.24 ($0.33)
Motors Liquidation (General Motors) Q3 – (-$4.45)
Robert Wiseman Dairies H1 – (-13.85p)

Shareholder meeting
Unicredit

NOVEMBER 17

● Investors in Icap will be keen to hear of progress in a host of new ventures, from Brazil to film distribution, when the world’s largest interdealer broker reports interim figures, writes Alistair Gray.

Together with a temporary shift towards traditional but lower-margin voice broking, the investments are set to weigh on the bottom line. Analysts expect a modest increase in sales to £800m but a dip in pre-tax profits before goodwill to £165m from £174m last time.

The group is expected to indicate that business slowed during the summer, which it usually does. The frantic trading activity seen in 2008 was unusual and makes for tough comparative figures.

The results will also be the first to quantify the performance in post-trade services as a distinct segment. Any further details of how Icap plans to deal with regulatory reforms – particularly in over-the-counter derivatives markets – will be crucial to the long-term outlook.

● Analysts are forecasting that EasyJet will report an underlying profit when it publishes its preliminary results, with a consensus figure of about £44m before tax for the airline, writes Pilita Clark.

That would be less than half the £110.2m pre-tax profits the low-cost carrier reported last year, and well below the £201.9m in 2007. But if it produces a positive result at all it will be good at a time when the industry is suffering what some claim is the worst aviation recession on record.

One measure to watch will be the airline’s yields, or average fares. The recession has seen other carriers report a fall in yields, including EasyJet’s rival, Ryanair. The Dublin-based airline is forecasting its yields will fall as much as 20 per cent in the winter season, after average ticket prices declined 17 per cent in the first half of the year to €39.

Some analysts say EasyJet could also suffer a slight drop in yields in what promises to be a difficult winter for many airlines as the busy summer months grow more distant.

● Fortis Holding’s third-quarter financials are again likely to include a raft of exceptional items relating to its dismantlement a year ago, writes Stanley Pignal.

The group’s underlying quarterly results will be dwarfed by adjustments to its large portfolio of financial assets, ranging from speculative bets on US mortgages to an option on BNP Paribas shares worth more than €1bn.

Fortis Holding is now exclusively an insurance company, having seen its banking arm nationalised by the Belgian and Dutch governments during the financial crisis.

Bart De Smet, chief executive, will also face uncomfortable questions about recent reports that more than 600 people connected to Fortis, most of them employees of the group, received letters from the Belgian financial regulator seeking information about insider trading.

Earnings
British Land H1 7.24p (12.63p)
Burberry H1 12.60p (15.59p)
Easy Jet FY 7.97p (22.06p)
Home Depot Q3 $0.36 ($0.45)
Icap H1 16.28p (17.16p)
Portugal Telecom Q3 €0.13 (€0.21)
Saks Q3 -$0.12 (-$0.13)
Target Q3 $0.50 ($0.49)
TJX Companies Q3 $0.80 ($0.57)

Trading and sales update
Fortis

NOVEMBER 18

● Ahold, the Dutch retailer, is expected to post a slight dip in net profits after reporting a 4.3 per cent rise in sales for the third quarter to €6.04bn, writes Michael Steen.

Increased promotional activity and price cuts to retain customers during harder economic times may have hit its margins, but the focus of attention will be any further management comment on the group’s acquisition and growth plans.

The company, with supermarket chains in the Netherlands and the US, is sitting on €2.6bn in cash and this month announced a boardroom reshuffle that frees two executives from day-to-day management in order to investigate “growth opportunities”.

The group believes it is well placed to benefit in an expected wave of consolidation in the sector but, having spent six years restructuring following an accounting scandal, is naturally conservative. Aside from acquisitions and organic growth, the group has indicated it may expand into markets adjacent to the ones it operates in.

Earnings
Ahold Q3 €0.15 (€0.17)
Hot Topic Q3 $0.13 ($0.17)
Land Securities H1 21.54p (37.22p)
Limited Brands Q3 -$0.01 ($0.01)
Land Securities H1 21.54p (37.22p)
Mitsubishi H1 Y4.68 (Y3.50)

Trading and sales update
Volvo

NOVEMBER 19

● In a recession, consumers might delay buying a new car but they will not be able to delay the repairs and spare parts needed to keep their old motor on the road. That is one of the reasons Halfords has been defying the downturn, writes Esther Bintliff.

Another driver of growth is the cycling trend in the UK: the government estimates bicycle traffic rose 12 per cent between 2007 and 2008. Environmentally friendly, healthy and cheap, it is likely that bikes will have continued to gain popularity this year, boosting Halfords’ sales of basic and premium cycles.

With like-for-like sales growth of 1.7 per cent in the first half, Halfords expects profits before tax of between £59m and £61m for the period, a jump of at least 20 per cent on the previous year.

Analysts are forecasting towards the top of the range. John Stevenson at KBC Peel Hunt said: “There should be no surprises in terms of first-half profit delivery, although with robust current trade and a strong outlook, we see scope for more upgrades to come.”

● Analysts expect brewer SABMiller’s interim earnings to be affected by high commodity costs and currency fluctuations, writes Hannah Kuchler.

Barley prices, which have been falling, will hurt profits because the company took out forward contracts when prices were higher.

It has reported a first-half volume decline of 1 per cent, with strong sales in emerging markets – especially Africa and China – offset by weakness in central and eastern Europe.

Its higher costs, however, are expected to ease in the second half of next year as commodity prices decline. Cost-cutting has helped boost profit margins at the brewer’s US joint venture, MillerCoors, which reported better than expected synergies of $183m in its third-quarter statement on November 4.

Analysts forecast pre-tax profits of $1.6bn compared with $1.8bn last year. Earnings per share are expected to be between $0.66 and $0.70, down from $0.75 last year.

Earnings
Gap Q3 $0.44 ($0.35)
Halfords H1 19.20p (16.73p)
SABMiller H1 $0.71 ($0.75)
Sears Holdings Q3 -$1.09 (-$0.90)
Sumitomo Mitsui Q3 – (-Y26.40)

NOVEMBER 20

● KKR’s Amsterdam-listed entity KKR Private Equity Investors (KPE) will report third-quarter earnings, the last time the unit will report financial results, writes Henny Sender.

On October 1, the day after it closed its books for the period, KKR merged with its Amsterdam unit, swapping 30 per cent of itself for the $3bn assets of KPE. The merged unit is expected to move to list on the New York Stock Exchange in the first half of next year.

Private equity firms have been huge beneficiaries of the rally in equity and debt markets and none has taken more advantage of investor enthusiasm than KKR. It has refinanced the debt of some of its companies and plans to list up to eight of those it holds. KKR was also among the most aggressive of the large buy-out firms, using cheap debt to buy many companies during the boom years. But it also bought carefully, choosing defensive companies that would hold up well in a consumer-led recession, such as retailer Dollar General.

If rival Blackstone’s results are anything to go by, KPE will report improved performance this quarter, as writedowns on the value of the companies are reversed.

Earnings
KKR Q3 – (-$3.34)

Results forecasts, from Thomson Reuters, are for fully diluted, post-tax EPS in local currency for the stated fiscal period. The comparable period of the previous year is bracketed. Non-UK reporting periods are broken by quarter: Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4. UK periods are designated: Q1, H1 (first half), Q3 and FY (full year). Thomson Reuters calculates mean earnings estimates based on a majority policy where the accounting basis used for each company estimate is that used by the majority of contributing analysts

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