Diary commentary from FT reporters; data and company announcements, unless otherwise stated, from Thomson Reuters. Company announcements are of information publicly available before last week

NOVEMBER 2

● Ford Motor is expected to stand out as a ray of (relative) light in the US automotive industry when it discloses third-quarter earnings, writes Bernard Simon.

While most analysts project a modest loss, some would not be surprised if Detroit’s number-two carmaker reports its second quarterly profit in a row. The $2.3bn profit last quarter was largely thanks to a debt-reduction deal.

Ford has capitalised on its position as the only big carmaker not to receive a government bail-out, gaining market share from General Motors and Chrysler while offering discounts and other incentives. According to JPMorgan: “Ford has the liquidity [cash on hand plus any potential capital markets transactions] to make it to 2010, when its cash burn should improve due to working capital inflows, higher production, and structural and legacy savings.” It could raise about $2bn from the sale of Volvo to China’s Zhejiang Geely, named last week as the preferred bidder for the Swedish brand.

But Ford’s relative good fortune comes at a price. The United Auto Workers union is balking at giving it the same concessions as GM and Chrysler, notably a no-strike pledge on pay disputes.

Earnings
Chloride Group H1, FY
Ford Motor Q3
Ryanair Q2

NOVEMBER 3

● Analysts will be scouring UBS’s third-quarter results for signs of recovery in its core private banking business, which suffered unprecedented outflows amid a tax investigation by US investigators, writes Megan Murphy.

No one expects a miraculous turnround, but evidence that the bank has stemmed withdrawals, particularly in the US and among offshore clients, would be welcomed by investors. UBS last week named Robert “Bob” McCann, the former head of Merrill Lynch’s wealth management division, to help rebuild its US private banking operations.

Analysts will be looking to see how settling its dispute with the Internal Revenue Service by agreeing to hand over the names of thousands of account holders has affected the business.

On the investment banking side, it is unlikely that UBS will be able to match the strong results posted by European competitors such as Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank, following the departure of numerous senior executives in crucial areas.

Earnings
Archer Daniels Midland Q1 $0.56 ($1.61)
Associated British Foods FY 55.97p (54.94p)
Kraft Foods Q3 $0.48 ($0.44)
Swiss Re Q3 -SFr0.45 (-SFr0.93)
UBS Q3 -SFr0.13 (SFr0.10)

Trading and sales updates
Antofagasta
Stagecoach
Weir

NOVEMBER 4

● Investors and analysts will be looking for any update on Marks and Spencer’s search for a new chief executive when the retailer reports first-half results, writes Andrea Felsted.

M&S is seeking a chief executive to succeed Sir Stuart Rose when he moves up to become non-executive chairman next year.

There will also be interest in current trading, given the recent warm weather – bad news for shopkeepers wanting to shift coats and knitwear. M&S, which reported second-quarter sales at the end of September, is not expected to give a specific update on trading. However, Sir Stuart is expected to provide a commentary on conditions.

The consensus of analysts’ forecasts is for interim pre-tax profits of £285m. The dividend is expected to be cut from 9.5p to 5.5p, in line with the guidance given in May.

● A clearer view of Chrysler’s future will emerge when Sergio Marchionne, chief executive of Italy’s Fiat, unveils his long-term strategy for the US carmaker, writes Bernard Simon. Fiat took operational control of the Detroit company and acquired a 20 per cent equity stake as part of Chrysler’s US government-backed restructuring last summer.

Mr Marchionne has already shaken up the senior management ranks in Detroit, hived off the Dodge Ram pick-up truck – Chrysler’s top-selling vehicle – into a separate division, begun a search for a fresh advertising agency, and raised the profile of Mopar, Chrysler’s often overlooked but well-respected parts and accessories operation.

Wednesday’s briefing will focus on a reconfiguration of Chrysler’s product line-up aimed at making it less dependent on pick-ups, sports-utility vehicles and minivans. Several Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep models will be dropped. New models are expected to include Fiat’s small 500 car and a sporty Alfa Romeo SUV.

Earnings
Alterian H1, FY estimate 15.98p (11.29p)
Cisco Systems Q1 $0.31 ($0.42)
FirstGroup H1, FY estimate 38.80p (48.60p)
Legal & General Q3, FY estimate 13.11p (10.66p)
Marks and Spencer H1 12.70p (13.66p)
News Corp Q1 $0.18 ($0.20)
Nissan Motor Q2 -Y0.10 (Y18.10)
Société Générale Q3 €0.98 (€0.30)
Time Warner Q3 $0.53 ($0.93)
Total Q3 €0.84 (€1.81)
Umeco H1, FY estimate 34.35p (40.54p)

Trading and sales updates
Aviva
Cobham
JD Wetherspoon
Legal & General
Next
Pace
Redrow
WSP

NOVEMBER 5

● Vedanta, the India-focused diversified mining company, has been expanding during the past year in spite of the financial crisis, writes William MacNamara.

Most recently it approved a $500m expansion to a copper smelter that will double its Indian smelting capacity. Investors will be looking to see how strong production gains in the first quarter translate into profitability across all the Vedanta group companies controlled by Anil Agarwal, the billionaire.

The expansion plans have been dogged by controversies and disasters, however. Investors will also be looking for updates on the fraud investigation launched last week into a unit of Vedanta subsidiary Sesa Goa, as well as the impact of a construction disaster that killed more than 30 people in September.

Also on the list is Vedanta’s plans if Sterlite, a subsidiary, fails in its $2.6bn bid to bring Asarco, the US copper company, out of bankruptcy. A district court ruling is expected this month to resolve Vedanta’s bidding war with Grupo Mexico.

Reuters’ analyst consensus sees first-half pre-tax profits falling to $771m from $1.14bn, on revenues of $3.4bn ($4bn). Earnings per share are estimated at $0.77 ($1.11) in the six months to September.

● Man Group’s results will underscore a stabilisation in the global hedge fund industry after months of poor performance, writes Sam Jones.

Outflows from the hedge fund and fund-of-fund operations that Man runs are expected to have moderated, with inflows anticipated in some areas of the business.

Earnings are likely to be in line with expectations, with an estimated profit before tax of about $280m and diluted earnings per share of about 12.5 cents.

Management and performance fees from the group’s fund operations – Man’s principle sources of revenue – are likely to remain low. In spite of a positive performance over the past few months, Man Group’s flagship AHL quantitative fund is still on course to suffer its worst year.

The company’s financial position is nevertheless strong, with an estimated $1.5bn of regulatory capital surplus.

● The central question looming over Cable & Wireless’s interim results is whether its plan to demerge the business – put on hold a year ago amid volatile equity markets – is back on the agenda, writes Philip Stafford.

C&W’s consumer-focused international arm is seen as a cash cow, while the rest of the group, which relies on sales to companies in the UK, has seen revenues grow but struggled to become cash flow-positive.

Analyst consensus is for the UK’s second-largest telecommunications company to report interim revenues of £1.9bn and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of £460m, compared with turnover of £1.6bn and ebitda of £357m a year ago. C&W has indicated that ebitda for the year would be just over £1bn, based on a US exchange rate of £1:$1.50.

● Analysts will be looking for underlying revenue growth of about 3 per cent when Unilever reports third-quarter earnings, writes Jenny Wiggins.

The Anglo-Dutch multinational has been performing strongly this year under the leadership of Paul Polman, new chief executive, with its shares rising 37 per cent during the past six months.

Analysts say Unilever is likely to keep improving sales volumes – which were higher in Europe last quarter for the first time in more than a year – and also believe its home and personal care products will benefit from falling commodity costs.

Earnings
3i Infrastructure Q2, FY estimate 10.66p (5.40p)
BNP Paribas Q3 €0.87 (€0.98)
BTG H1 0.05p (2.14p)
Cable & Wireless H1, FY estimate 13.09p (12.95p)
Charles Stanley Group H1 8.80p (8.13p)
Commerzbank Q3 -€0.70 (-€0.43)
Deutsche Börse Q3 €0.90 (€1.35)
Deutsche Telekom Q3 €0.20 (€0.21)
Invensys H1, FY estimate 17.78p (17.40p)
Man Group H1 $0.12 ($0.29))
MGM Mirage Q3 -$0.07 ($0.22)
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Q3, FY estimate 16.65p (29.10p)
Munich Re Q3 €3.44 (€0.03)
Time Warner Cable Q3 $0.75 ($0.93)
Toyota Motor Q2 -Y12.71 (Y44.50)
Unilever Q3 33.67p (32.84p)
Vedanta Resources FY $1.72 ($0.76)
Wincanton H1, FY estimate 21.36p (24.74p)

Trading and sales updates
Charter
Costco Wholesale
Friends Provident
Kofax
Kohls
L’Oreal
Old Mutual
RSA Insurance
Segro
Signet Jewelers
Spectris
Spirent Communications
Target
Tomkins

NOVEMBER 6

● A mixture of fresh oil price rises, a recovering global economy and a slump in the number of business class passengers hangs over British Airways as it prepares to report its second-quarter results, writes Pilita Clark.

The airline has warned it expects to make the largest loss in its history this year, more than last year’s full-year pre-tax loss of £401m, which will be the first time it will have suffered two consecutive years of losses.

Keith Williams, chief financial officer, said last month that full-year revenues will “almost certainly” be about £1bn lower than the £8.99bn BA reported for the year to the end of March 2009. A lower fuel bill will help close the gap, but will not fill it.

Investors will be seeking assurances that the threat of pre-Christmas strikes by cabin crew is not damaging forward bookings, and will be keen to hear about the airline’s long-term strategic aims, including its planned merger with Spain’s Iberia and a transatlantic alliance with American Airlines and Iberia.

● Smith & Nephew, the medical equipment group, reports third-quarter sales and analysts will be keen to see if its Birmingham hip resurfacing and Journey knee devices are still being hurt by the deferral of operations, writes John O’Doherty.

The two products are designed for patients under the age of 60, who in the past year have tended to delay elective surgery because of the economic downturn. Yet there have been indications from other medical companies that this setback for elective surgery devices has bottomed out.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast third-quarter revenues of $912m and pre-tax profits of $179m, with earnings per share of 14 cents.

Earnings
British Airways Q2, FY estimate -35.80p (-32.60p)
Smith & Nephew Q3 $0.14 ($0.10)
Tate & Lyle H1 16.64p (18.10p)

Trading and sales updates
Dechra Pharmaceuticals
Rentokil Initial

Results forecasts, from Thomson Reuters, are for fully diluted, post-tax EPS in local currency for the stated fiscal period. The comparable period of the previous year is bracketed. Non-UK reporting periods are broken by quarter: Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4. UK periods are designated: Q1, H1 (first half), Q3 and FY (full year). Thomson Reuters calculates mean earnings estimates based on a majority policy where the accounting basis used for each company estimate is that used by the majority of contributing analysts

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