Over the years, I have observed this about the political economy of economic reform in Europe: there is an inverse relationship between the number of objectives and measures of a reform agenda and its ultimate success. The most successful reform agendas have a single overriding objective and a short list of measures. The worst are lists with 316 proposals, as recently published in France, or the 281-page election platform published by Romano Prodi’s centre-left alliance ahead of the 2006 Italian elections. The European Union’s verbose Lisbon Agenda falls into the same category. It is not bad in substance, but lousy in terms of political economy.

I am moderately optimistic about the future of economic reform in Italy, primarily because of this inverse relationship. The new administration has offered no long lists, no convoluted objectives, a few sensible measures and a few less sensible ones. So why should Silvio Berlusconi, prime minister designate, deliver now when he failed to deliver during his first two administrations? I share those doubts that others have expressed on these pages and elsewhere. To push through a reform agenda, one needs a strategic purpose, solid majorities and the ability to overcome political and administrative obstacles. Mr Berlusconi has the last two and is probably lacking the first.