News that Afghanistan’s opium production is marginally down, mainly because of drought and a sharp rise in wheat prices, should offer no more than a moment of grim satisfaction. The Afghan economy is still almost entirely dependent on narcotics revenue and aid. The US-led Nato mission is not winning against the Taliban. And this graveyard of empires is once again in danger of failing as a state and being overrun by insurgents sustained by almost limitless drugs funds.

It is far from clear that counter-insurgency can succeed against the Taliban, which is now drawing dangerously close to Kabul.