Just a couple of years ago, if one had asked almost any economist, oil minister, central banker or Wall Street analyst to predict what would happen if oil prices doubled to $40 a barrel in 2004 and then gained another $15 in 2005, they would have warned of a resulting recession.
History backs the theory, with downturns following every oil price spike since the first big shock in 1973. But history has not repeated itself in the past three years.
