Alistair Darling, the chancellor, publicly fretted at the weekend about the state of the UK economy and the performance of the Labour government. On the economy, his prognosis is too bleak. On Labour, his prognosis is nowhere near bleak enough. As the new political year begins, Labour finds itself 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives. But the government will only make matters worse politically and economically if it overreacts to the downturn.

Mr Darling noted in an interview this weekend that the government was "not doing OK". Quite an understatement. Gordon Brown, the prime minister, has had a dreadful summer. Losing one of the safest Labour seats in the country - Glasgow East - to the Scottish National party on a swing of 22 per cent had been the nadir. But another byelection in another formerly safe Scottish seat - Glenrothes - looms. A date has yet to be set, but the parties are already campaigning. The SNP may well win again.