COMMENT US presidential elections often embarrass forecasters, and this one is no exception. Speculation that clear front-runners would have emerged by now was wrong. In both parties, the race for the nomination is wide open. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have pulled ahead of the other Democrats, but neither is yet dominating the other. John McCain’s victory in South Carolina means that at least three candidates might yet win the Republican nomination: Mitt Romney, Rudolph Giuliani and Mr McCain himself. The rush of primaries on “Super Tuesday”, February 5, had been confidently expected to anoint the general-election contenders. Now this is in doubt as well.
Six months ago, Mr McCain’s campaign was on the verge of collapse. He has surged back to win two competitive primaries, New Hampshire and South Carolina. His victory on Saturday was especially striking since South Carolina (unlike New Hampshire) has a big contingent of evangelicals, not instinctive McCain supporters. In defeating Mike Huckabee, the evangelicals’ choice, in a southern state that has voted for the eventual Republican nominee in every election since 1980, Mr McCain achieved a remarkable recovery.
