The summer phony war for the US presidency is about to end. What do markets tell us about the race for the White House?

If the prediction markets run by the University of Iowa and Intrade are right, Barack Obama is the frontrunner, but no “sure thing”. His chances are between 58.4 per cent (Intrade) and 59.6 per cent (Iowa). These odds had been as high as 72.2 per cent.