On October 2 the people of Ireland will vote for a second time in a referendum to determine the fate of the Lisbon Treaty. Most voters will naturally focus on the consequences of a Yes or No for Ireland. Yet, while Brussels looks on nervously, we might do well to reflect on the repercussions of an Irish No for the European Union as a whole. Here are some of them.

First off, there would be the mother of all constitutional stalemates. The EU last managed to revise a treaty as long ago as 2000, in the form of the unloved Treaty of Nice. Since then we have had attempts at the draft constitution of 2003, the constitutional treaty of 2004 and the Lisbon treaty in 2007 – now, in 2009, adorned with legal guarantees for Ireland, plus the promise of an Irish member of the European Commission for eternity.