After weeks of creditor bashing, Ecuador has issued a post-dated promise to honour the $135m due tomorrow on its bonds. But even though the month-old government may pay this time around, a new senior creditor has been seated at the table in the negotiation of troubled sovereign debt. Emerging market investors would do well to reformat old spreadsheets and take heed of a new risk factor: the percentage of the electorate that struggles below the poverty line.

For the first time in the melodrama of Latin American debt - which has seen 20 restructurings in 20 years - a country that clearly has the wherewithal to pay is questioning how much to pay. It was a campaign promise: financial debt to foreign lenders would be subordinated to a social debt to the nation's poor. And where Ecuador leads, a dozen neighbours may follow.