After every disaster, relief that it has passed is tempered by the need to come to terms with the scale of destruction. This economic storm is no different. Now that the recession seems over, the time has arrived to survey the wreckage and chart the path ahead.

Though no longer on its knees, the world economy remains shaky. The International Monetary Fund expects the global downturn to be followed by 2010 growth of only 1 per cent in rich economies and less than 5 in emerging countries – far below pre-crisis forecasts. It is a measure of the world’s wariness that these predictions are relatively hopeful. In contrast Michael Geoghegan, HSBC’s chief executive, foresees a W-shaped recovery with output taking a second dip.