Credibility is key to policy success

The UK has followed the US and Japan into “unconventional monetary policy”. Meanwhile, Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England warns the UK government of the dangers of further discretionary fiscal stimulus. Yet what are the implications of the policies followed by central banks? Are these not the big threat to monetary stability?

According to forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, the UK’s general government deficit will be 9.5 per cent of gross domestic product this year and 11 per cent in 2010, the largest in the Group of 20. As I argued earlier this week (“Why G20 leaders will fail to deal with the big challenge”), the rise in the deficit, from 2.7 per cent of GDP in 2007, is the counterpart of the swing in the private balance, forecast at 8.9 per cent of GDP between 2007 and 2009.